Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (+7.5) over Minnesota

· I expect the Chicago’s players on the field to try their best towin, but the front office clearly wants to lose this game for better draft position by starting Nathan Peterman.

· Peterman ranks last in EPA/play among 89 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks + runs since 2017.

· Justin Fields was only 64 rushing yards away from setting the all-time quarterback record, but GM Ryan Poles does not want him on the field at all and the doctors diagnosed Fields with a red-light hip strain.

· The Vikings might not take this game seriously either given they are locked into the 3-seed unless the 49ers get upset favored by 14 over the Cardinals. Minnesota may want to prioritize rest over the minute chance at the 2-seed.

· The Vikings already lost right tackle Brian O’Neill to a partially torn Achilles last week. O’Neill ranked 10th in pass blocking efficiency and is now out for the season.

· Our model favors Minnesota 7.6 points with a predicted total of 40.6 points. There isn’t any line value, but the Vikings apply to a 78-150-10 ATS last road game situation while the Bears apply to a 67-25 ATS late season home dog situation. I’ll lean with the Bears based on the situation.