Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Minnesota (-3.5) over CAROLINA

· Minnesota’s offense is averaging 6.2 yppl (2nd) but the Vikings are being dragged down by turnovers. They’ve averaged 3 giveaways a game, which is unlikely to continue.

· The injuries on Carolina’s defense are starting to pile up. The Panthers were already without starting linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerback Jaycee Horn, who ranked 21st in coverage grade by PFF last year.

· Carolina backup cornerback CJ Henderson will struggle across from Justin Jefferson, who is averaging 2.81 adjusted yards per route run (3rd).

· The Panthers lost starting S Xavier Woods and LB Frankie Luvu last week in Seattle. Luvu’s 15 stops rank 4th in the NFL. Carolina’s defense surrendered scores on 4 of 5 Seahawks’ second-half drives without Thompson, Horn, Woods, and Luvu on the field.

· The Panthers are allowing 8.2 yards per target to TEs (27th). No Thompson and no Woods in the secondary provides a favorable matchup for Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson, who is averaging 9.0 targets per game.

· Kirk Cousins should be well protected as RT Brian O’Neill ranked 10th in pass-blocking efficiency last season and he will contain Carolina edge defender Brian Burns, who has 3.0 sacks (9th).

· Minnesota’s defense is getting pressure on blitzes 28% less than the league average. However, defensive coordinator Brian Flores is dialing up the highest blitz rate in the NFL at 67%.

· The Vikings have a 32% man-coverage rate, and the aggressive Flores defense will serve them well on Sunday. I talked last week about how the Panthers would score points regardless of who was under center because Seattle’s defense was more zone-heavy than New Orleans and Atlanta.

· Adam Thielen is Carolina’s only receiver that can beat man coverage, as he has a 48% target rate versus man, the 4th-most in the NFL. Thielen has a 61% success rate on all routes (11th) and he will be featured across from Minnesota nickelback Josh Metellus, who is surrendering a league-high 2.06 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Other than Thielen, it looks bleak for Bryce Young. No other wide receiver will be able to get separation. The Panthers are one of five offenses targeting running backs on more than a fourth of their passes, but the Vikings are conceding only 3.9 yards per target to RBs (6th).

· Our model favors the Vikings by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, and the matchups are favorable.

Minnesota is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.