Game Analysis
Lean – CAROLINA (+1.5/+2) over Minnesota
The Panthers and Vikings lead the NFL with pressure rates of 32.3% and 31.7% respectively. Both defenses are led by their edge rushers as Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen have combined for 10 sacks while Carolina’s Haason Reddick and Brian Burns have combined for 32 pressures. Vikings LT Rashod Hill is most at risk of the four starting tackles in this game as he is ranked 54 out of 60 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. However, Hill’s time as a starter may be ending as rookie tackle Christian Darrisaw played 42% of the snaps last week and did not concede a pressure. Minnesota RT Brian O’Neill has yet to concede a sack and protect Kirk Cousins on the other side.
These pass defenses have struggled aside from putting pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. Vikings CB Bashaud Breeland has been targeted at the highest rate among 80 qualifying cornerbacks and I expect Sam Darnold to feature WR DJ Moore (12th in yards per route run) as the receiver to pick on Breeland this week.
The Panthers won’t have Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore available yet and their other newly acquired cornerback CJ Henderson is surrendering 2.79 yards per cover snap during his two games with the defense. Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.33 yards per route run (13th) and Kirk Cousins should find him free when lined up across from Henderson.
Our model makes Carolina a 1.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.6 points, and the Vikings apply to a 65-133-8 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s narrow victory.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.2
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.3%
46.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
9.6%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.3%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.7%
36.4%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.8
27.4
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
35.4%
18.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
55.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.8%
34.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
63.4
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
57.2%
-
Succ Rate
45.8%
50.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.9%
36.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
29.2
-
Run Ratio
40.2%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
1.3
-1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
0.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.6%
0.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
0.0%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.9%
0.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.2%
0.0%
-
NYPP
7.0
0.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.4
0.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
0.0
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
0.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
0.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.7%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
0.0
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
0.0
-
Early Down Succ
50.0%
0.0%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
0.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.4%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
0.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
0.0
-
Run Ratio
42.7%
0.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
4.6
-4.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
24 – 27 L |
-3.4 |
43.4% /
46.9% |
5.7% /
15.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
8.2 |
36.4% /
52.8% |
45.5% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
4.1 |
75 /
68 |
41.1% /
60.4% |
41.3% /
50.0% |
37.3% /
40.0% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.3% /
52.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
@ARZ |
33 – 34 L |
3.7 |
51.5% /
56.4% |
3.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
7.4 /
10.3 |
51.9% /
66.7% |
33.3% /
19.0% |
6.6 /
4.9 |
60 /
60 |
58.0% /
66.7% |
51.7% /
60.0% |
43.7% /
44.9% |
7.0 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
35.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
SEA |
30 – 17 W |
2.1 |
69.2% /
55.9% |
2.6% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.8 |
47.1% /
55.6% |
23.5% /
11.1% |
4.1 /
5.9 |
73 /
52 |
57.6% /
63.4% |
58.9% /
55.8% |
36.1% /
39.6% |
6.3 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.6% /
34.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
CLV |
7 – 14 L |
0.1 |
35.0% /
33.3% |
5.0% /
8.3% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
34.8% /
47.4% |
39.1% /
10.5% |
2.8 /
4.8 |
63 /
74 |
37.2% /
42.6% |
34.9% /
40.5% |
47.4% /
34.2% |
4.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
51.4% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 5 |
DET |
19 – 17 W |
4.0 |
47.2% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
10.3% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
7.6 /
5.2 |
35.7% /
54.2% |
35.7% /
25.0% |
4.3 /
4.5 |
64 /
63 |
44.9% /
53.1% |
42.2% /
46.0% |
35.2% /
25.1% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
43.8% /
38.1% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
19 – 14 W |
6.9 |
47.2% /
37.2% |
2.8% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
44.4% /
35.3% |
29.6% /
11.8% |
4.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
60 |
52.1% /
41.5% |
46.0% /
36.7% |
45.9% /
50.8% |
6.2 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
28.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
NO |
26 – 7 W |
11.5 |
57.5% /
19.2% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
2.6% /
9.1% |
7.6 /
4.3 |
33.3% /
35.3% |
39.4% /
29.4% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
73 /
43 |
44.8% /
32.1% |
46.6% /
25.6% |
25.1% /
39.0% |
5.4 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
39.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@HST |
24 – 9 W |
6.1 |
45.9% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
0.0 |
48.5% /
0.0% |
30.3% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
0.0 |
70 /
0 |
50.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
0.0% |
48.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
0.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
0.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
28 – 36 L |
-7.1 |
50.0% /
59.1% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
8.5 |
62.5% /
55.9% |
20.8% /
26.5% |
4.7 /
6.8 |
68 /
56 |
61.2% /
60.9% |
54.4% /
57.1% |
42.0% /
55.5% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.3% /
60.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 5 |
PHI |
18 – 21 L |
5.3 |
42.5% /
33.3% |
7.5% /
5.1% |
8.1% /
2.7% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
36.7% /
59.1% |
20.0% /
22.7% |
3.6 /
4.1 |
70 /
61 |
41.8% /
45.7% |
40.0% /
42.6% |
30.1% /
40.5% |
4.1 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
42.9% /
36.1% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
Carolina Panthers