Game Analysis
Lean – ATLANTA (-3) over Minnesota
The Falcons combined for 95 points on 6.1 yards per play over the last 3 weeks but they certainly benefitted from their opponent’s defensive injuries. The Cowboys were without Sean Lee, the Seahawks were without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, and the Buccaneers were without Robert Ayers and Vernon Hargreaves. Minnesota’s defense, allowing just 4.8 yards per play (2nd), will be a much tougher test.
Falcons cornerbacks Desmond Trufant and Brian Poole were both injured in last week’s game and are listed as questionable. Atlanta will need both cornerbacks healthy against Minnesota’s receiving tandem of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, each ranking top 10 in yards per route run this season.
If Atlanta’s cornerbacks both play then I’d lean with the Falcons, who apply to a 154-74-3 ATS angle that plays on good offensive teams at home against elite defensive teams.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
42.6%
-
Sack Rate
3.1%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.0%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.0%
34.5%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.8
23.1
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.9%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.1%
16.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.9
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
48.9%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.4%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.1%
30.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.0
-
Run Ratio
48.0%
36.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.2
-
Game Control
3.5
-3.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.2
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
44.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
0.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
30.3%
-
NYPP
7.5
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
26.5
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.4%
22.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.0%
48.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.5%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
51.0%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
49.1%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
34.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.7
-
Run Ratio
43.9%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.2
29.8
-
Game Control
3.2
-3.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
| 7 |
BAL |
24 – 16 W |
5.1 |
54.8% /
36.4% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
39.4% /
40.0% |
27.3% /
35.0% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
64 /
64 |
46.9% /
36.2% |
46.9% /
37.5% |
26.3% /
29.8% |
5.6 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
31.3% |
33.2 /
25.4 |
| 8 |
@CLE |
33 – 16 W |
1.9 |
52.3% /
29.7% |
2.3% /
8.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.2% /
54.5% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.6 /
5.2 |
78 /
59 |
50.0% /
42.2% |
47.4% /
39.0% |
28.8% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
43.6% /
37.3% |
32.8 /
31.2 |
| 10 |
@WAS |
38 – 30 W |
6.2 |
65.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.9% /
2.2% |
10.5 /
6.8 |
51.5% /
46.4% |
30.3% /
21.4% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
62 /
74 |
60.9% /
49.1% |
58.1% /
45.9% |
52.2% /
43.0% |
6.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.2% /
37.8% |
34.6 /
34.1 |
| 11 |
LA |
24 – 7 W |
1.7 |
55.3% /
47.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.5 |
36.1% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
38.9% |
4.8 /
2.6 |
74 /
56 |
44.6% /
50.0% |
45.9% /
44.6% |
50.2% /
18.0% |
6.1 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
32.1% |
22.2 /
24.6 |
| 12 |
@DET |
30 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.4% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.2 |
35.6% /
46.7% |
31.1% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
77 /
53 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
37.7% |
50.4% /
47.4% |
5.3 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
58.4% /
28.3% |
32.1 /
29.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.0 |
32.0% /
52.6% |
24.0% /
15.8% |
2.6 /
6.6 |
57 /
63 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
42.1% /
38.1% |
49.7% /
31.2% |
6.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
30.2% |
18.3 /
28.1 |
| 2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% /
50.9% |
9.7% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
56.3% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
58 /
69 |
55.3% /
53.8% |
53.4% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
24.2% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
23.2% |
26.7 /
22.1 |
| 3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% /
40.4% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
31.6% |
13.8% /
26.3% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
66 /
66 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
34.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
28.8% |
27.8 /
29.7 |
| 4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% /
43.5% |
2.3% /
13.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
23.7% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
47.7% |
52.8% /
44.3% |
30.9% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
62.3% |
25.9 /
21.9 |
| 6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
47.4% /
46.9% |
42.1% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
55 /
65 |
48.8% /
47.9% |
49.1% /
46.2% |
40.1% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
49.2% |
20.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% /
48.4% |
2.9% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.8 |
54.5% /
56.4% |
18.2% /
12.8% |
5.5 /
4.2 |
56 /
70 |
65.9% /
57.7% |
57.1% /
52.9% |
26.8% /
38.4% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
55.7% |
21.9 /
28.8 |
| 8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
3.3% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.7 |
37.5% /
22.7% |
28.1% /
36.4% |
4.4 /
2.0 |
62 /
57 |
45.8% /
41.5% |
43.5% /
40.4% |
53.1% /
40.1% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
3.2% /
1.8% |
51.6% /
38.6% |
26.1 /
36.9 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
5.0% /
4.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.2 |
36.8% /
50.0% |
26.3% /
21.1% |
2.8 /
5.3 |
59 /
63 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
44.1% /
46.0% |
39.6% /
43.3% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
32.2% /
60.3% |
20.5 /
35.8 |
| 10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% /
40.5% |
3.3% /
21.6% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
29.4% /
45.5% |
44.1% /
22.7% |
3.9 /
4.9 |
64 /
59 |
44.9% /
42.6% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
46.7% /
55.4% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
53.1% /
37.3% |
29.9 /
33.3 |
| 11 |
@SEA |
34 – 31 W |
8.5 |
53.6% /
48.9% |
3.6% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
34.4% /
65.2% |
21.9% /
21.7% |
2.8 /
5.9 |
60 /
68 |
40.5% /
57.4% |
43.3% /
54.4% |
37.7% /
46.7% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
53.3% /
33.8% |
33.0 /
36.4 |
| 12 |
TB |
34 – 20 W |
8.2 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.5 /
6.2 |
60.7% /
56.5% |
14.3% /
17.4% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
63 /
68 |
55.1% /
56.4% |
60.3% /
52.9% |
61.4% /
18.8% |
8.2 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
33.8% |
26.3 /
25.0 |
Minnesota Vikings
@ 
Atlanta Falcons