Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – TENNESSEE (-3.5) vs Miami

Miami’s defense has a 39.2% blitz rate (2nd) but the Dolphins have also been getting to the quarterback without the blitz, as the Dolphins lead the NFL with a 11% sack rate on non-blitzes during their seven game win streak. Edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency and edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah ranks 18th in pass rushing efficiency. Miami’s edge tandem should put pressure on Ryan Tannehill as Tennessee LT Taylor Lewan is banged-up with a back injury and RT David Quessenberry has surrendered a league-high 11 sacks. Titans’ wide receiver AJ Brown had 145 yards and a touchdown in his first game since week 11 but he will have a more difficult matchup on Sunday across from Pro Bowl CB Xavien Howard.

Miami is targeting TEs on 29.6% of passes but Tennessee’s defense is conceding only 5.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd). Tua Tagovailoa will instead feature rookie WR Jaylen Waddle, who had 92 yards and a touchdown last Monday night.

Our model favors the Titans by 4.1 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points, and Miami applies to a 52-125-7 ATS road letdown situation based on their long win streak. I’ll lean with the Titans.

Team Stats
Game Log

Dolphins
Titans

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.27 40.33
Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 43.5%
Sack Rate 5.9% 7.3%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 14.0% 17.8%
Big Pass Yards 33.8% 40.6%
NYPP 5.71 5.83

Rush

Rush Plays 25.53 23.87
RB YPR 3.30 4.15
Stuff Rate 26.9% 24.3%
Succ Rush Plays 42.8% 45.3%
Big Rush Yards 29.3% 48.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.39 4.29

Game

All Snaps 64.80 64.20
Early Down Succ 49.5% 46.5%
Succ Rate 47.0% 44.1%
Big Yards Rate 32.6% 42.8%
Yards Per Play 4.80 5.26
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.30 28.09
Run Ratio 39.4% 37.2%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -0.04 0.04

Points 20.33 21.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	17 – 16 W	3.18	51.7% / 56.4%	6.9% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	6.38 / 7.21	56.5% / 56.7%	30.4% / 13.3%	3.22 / 4.17	52 / 69	58.5% / 52.8%	53.8% / 56.5%	43.1% / 36.9%	4.98 / 5.88	0.0% / 2.9%	44.2% / 43.5%	25.11 / 27.63
2	BUF	0 – 35 L	-18.46	36.0% / 38.2%	12.0% / 2.9%	2.3% / 3.0%	2.90 / 5.03	25.0% / 43.3%	35.0% / 26.7%	3.55 / 4.77	70 / 64	33.3% / 36.0%	32.9% / 40.6%	11.9% / 52.5%	3.09 / 4.91	2.9% / 1.6%	28.6% / 46.9%	33.58 / 31.77
3	@LV	28 – 31 L	0.60	43.1% / 45.7%	3.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	3.86 / 7.76	44.4% / 48.6%	22.2% / 22.9%	4.93 / 4.00	78 / 81	45.5% / 46.2%	43.6% / 46.9%	31.3% / 54.8%	4.23 / 6.14	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 43.2%	26.91 / 24.54
4	IND	17 – 27 L	-4.25	51.5% / 35.3%	9.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.09 / 6.18	50.0% / 42.4%	31.3% / 39.4%	2.19 / 4.21	49 / 67	58.8% / 37.3%	51.0% / 38.8%	47.4% / 56.1%	4.14 / 5.21	4.1% / 1.5%	32.7% / 49.3%	31.50 / 32.40
5	@TB	17 – 45 L	-9.98	54.8% / 68.1%	7.1% / 4.3%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.24 / 9.30	44.4% / 64.0%	22.2% / 24.0%	4.33 / 4.84	51 / 72	59.5% / 66.7%	52.9% / 66.7%	50.0% / 39.6%	5.90 / 7.75	2.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 34.7%	23.67 / 29.30
6	@JAX	20 – 23 L	1.94	50.0% / 51.2%	0.0% / 4.7%	2.1% / 0.0%	7.38 / 7.26	40.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 21.1%	3.85 / 4.42	68 / 62	44.9% / 51.1%	47.1% / 45.2%	40.6% / 44.2%	6.34 / 6.39	0.0% / 1.6%	29.4% / 30.6%	25.91 / 29.73
7	ATL	28 – 30 L	-2.83	58.5% / 51.2%	2.4% / 2.4%	5.0% / 2.5%	6.85 / 7.93	51.7% / 36.4%	10.3% / 13.6%	4.55 / 3.27	70 / 63	55.2% / 46.9%	55.7% / 46.0%	12.5% / 52.0%	5.90 / 6.30	0.0% / 1.6%	41.4% / 34.9%	31.90 / 29.18
8	@BUF	11 – 26 L	-3.32	39.0% / 46.5%	4.9% / 0.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.73 / 5.79	43.5% / 34.8%	26.1% / 39.1%	2.96 / 4.43	64 / 66	44.7% / 42.3%	40.6% / 42.4%	35.5% / 28.2%	4.09 / 5.32	1.6% / 0.0%	35.9% / 34.8%	28.27 / 30.00
9	HST	17 – 9 W	6.62	48.9% / 40.8%	8.5% / 10.2%	4.7% / 6.8%	4.57 / 4.06	28.0% / 33.3%	44.0% / 16.7%	1.88 / 4.06	72 / 67	40.4% / 43.2%	41.7% / 38.8%	7.2% / 23.0%	3.64 / 4.06	2.8% / 3.0%	34.7% / 26.9%	31.75 / 31.50
10	BLT	22 – 10 W	2.16	37.5% / 40.4%	10.0% / 8.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.25 / 4.47	40.9% / 47.8%	36.4% / 34.8%	2.73 / 4.09	62 / 70	44.7% / 51.9%	38.7% / 42.9%	58.8% / 31.0%	5.65 / 4.34	0.0% / 1.4%	35.5% / 32.9%	24.92 / 25.36
11	@NYJ	24 – 17 W	2.71	61.8% / 53.7%	0.0% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.03 / 6.78	39.4% / 61.1%	30.3% / 16.7%	3.48 / 5.67	67 / 59	49.1% / 58.1%	50.7% / 55.9%	32.2% / 53.4%	5.79 / 6.44	0.0% / 1.7%	49.3% / 30.5%	27.09 / 31.10
12	CAR	33 – 10 W	10.12	57.6% / 22.2%	6.1% / 13.9%	0.0% / 9.7%	6.18 / 3.72	38.5% / 55.6%	30.8% / 16.7%	2.85 / 3.56	72 / 54	46.4% / 36.4%	47.2% / 33.3%	28.7% / 48.1%	4.38 / 3.67	1.4% / 0.0%	54.2% / 33.3%	39.82 / 24.50
13	NYG	20 – 9 W	3.09	55.8% / 27.7%	4.7% / 6.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	5.33 / 3.38	28.0% / 41.2%	20.0% / 35.3%	2.72 / 5.35	68 / 64	47.2% / 28.9%	45.6% / 31.3%	11.5% / 29.9%	4.37 / 3.91	0.0% / 0.0%	36.8% / 26.6%	25.83 / 29.00
15	NYJ	31 – 24 W	-2.36	50.0% / 33.3%	3.6% / 20.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	7.00 / 4.20	57.1% / 50.0%	21.4% / 16.7%	4.36 / 4.25	70 / 54	57.4% / 50.0%	54.3% / 40.7%	47.2% / 41.2%	5.41 / 4.22	1.4% / 1.9%	60.0% / 44.4%	27.08 / 33.45
16	@NO	20 – 3 W	10.17	62.1% / 28.6%	10.3% / 28.6%	3.8% / 10.0%	5.97 / 2.89	46.7% / 26.1%	26.7% / 21.7%	2.87 / 3.61	59 / 51	61.4% / 40.6%	54.2% / 27.5%	26.1% / 39.0%	4.39 / 3.22	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 45.1%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ARZ	13 – 38 L	-15.57	42.9% / 41.2%	14.3% / 5.9%	2.8% / 3.1%	3.86 / 8.24	45.5% / 54.5%	36.4% / 21.2%	3.91 / 4.12	64 / 67	50.0% / 47.2%	43.8% / 47.8%	24.3% / 46.6%	3.88 / 6.21	3.1% / 0.0%	34.4% / 49.3%	25.33 / 42.50
2	@SEA	33 – 30 W	-5.49	53.5% / 41.2%	7.0% / 8.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.44 / 9.41	52.5% / 55.6%	22.5% / 22.2%	5.30 / 4.28	83 / 52	57.6% / 51.3%	53.0% / 46.2%	31.3% / 58.6%	6.41 / 7.63	1.2% / 0.0%	48.2% / 34.6%	23.92 / 29.75
3	IND	25 – 16 W	4.29	53.6% / 30.8%	3.6% / 5.1%	7.4% / 0.0%	6.71 / 4.56	37.8% / 61.1%	27.0% / 16.7%	4.86 / 4.83	65 / 57	42.3% / 42.9%	44.6% / 40.4%	39.8% / 30.6%	5.66 / 4.65	1.5% / 0.0%	56.9% / 31.6%	26.78 / 31.44
4	@NYJ	24 – 27 L	1.09	41.1% / 45.7%	12.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	4.52 / 8.26	51.4% / 48.0%	18.9% / 36.0%	4.78 / 2.64	93 / 60	50.7% / 47.8%	45.2% / 46.7%	33.9% / 57.3%	4.62 / 5.92	0.0% / 0.0%	39.8% / 41.7%	28.15 / 27.00
5	@JAX	37 – 19 W	9.28	40.0% / 54.3%	12.0% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.36 / 7.31	63.9% / 61.3%	13.9% / 19.4%	5.11 / 6.39	61 / 66	57.4% / 65.4%	54.1% / 57.6%	45.9% / 41.4%	6.03 / 6.88	0.0% / 1.5%	59.0% / 47.0%	30.78 / 24.73
6	BUF	34 – 31 W	-2.27	44.8% / 54.0%	0.0% / 6.0%	3.4% / 2.1%	7.45 / 6.70	45.5% / 43.5%	31.8% / 21.7%	6.64 / 3.57	51 / 73	45.0% / 52.6%	45.1% / 50.7%	54.7% / 26.4%	7.10 / 5.71	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 31.5%	28.55 / 25.80
7	KC	27 – 3 W	17.81	65.5% / 52.7%	3.4% / 7.3%	3.6% / 2.0%	9.17 / 4.67	48.6% / 76.9%	22.9% / 23.1%	2.94 / 5.92	64 / 68	54.9% / 62.3%	56.3% / 57.4%	38.9% / 31.2%	5.77 / 4.91	0.0% / 2.9%	54.7% / 19.1%	28.33 / 19.56
8	@IND	34 – 31 W	-3.46	43.2% / 42.3%	8.1% / 1.9%	5.9% / 3.9%	6.68 / 4.31	35.5% / 70.0%	25.8% / 5.0%	3.00 / 4.15	68 / 72	37.0% / 50.9%	39.7% / 50.0%	23.2% / 31.2%	5.00 / 4.26	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 27.8%	29.25 / 30.92
9	@LA	28 – 16 W	9.58	40.0% / 43.4%	10.0% / 9.4%	3.7% / 4.2%	4.17 / 4.77	53.8% / 52.4%	19.2% / 19.0%	2.65 / 4.48	56 / 74	51.3% / 52.8%	46.4% / 45.9%	11.8% / 27.1%	3.46 / 4.69	0.0% / 0.0%	46.4% / 28.4%	36.55 / 20.91
10	NO	23 – 21 W	4.91	44.8% / 40.0%	6.9% / 10.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.83 / 7.18	37.9% / 52.4%	37.9% / 28.6%	2.28 / 4.10	58 / 61	46.7% / 48.9%	41.4% / 44.3%	31.9% / 48.9%	4.55 / 6.11	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 34.4%	35.09 / 28.10
11	HST	13 – 22 L	-8.51	50.0% / 41.7%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.7% / 0.0%	5.87 / 4.46	48.0% / 34.2%	32.0% / 36.8%	4.12 / 2.18	79 / 62	53.4% / 36.4%	49.4% / 37.1%	23.7% / 0.0%	5.32 / 3.06	1.3% / 0.0%	31.6% / 61.3%	27.50 / 41.17
12	@NE	13 – 36 L	-7.84	34.8% / 55.9%	8.7% / 5.9%	4.8% / 0.0%	3.70 / 8.50	59.0% / 41.7%	7.7% / 20.8%	6.92 / 4.38	62 / 58	53.2% / 53.2%	50.0% / 50.0%	52.1% / 49.4%	5.73 / 6.79	4.8% / 0.0%	62.9% / 41.4%	23.82 / 40.91
14	JAX	20 – 0 W	10.30	48.6% / 37.2%	11.4% / 7.0%	0.0% / 10.0%	4.60 / 4.28	38.2% / 12.5%	32.4% / 62.5%	3.00 / 1.00	69 / 51	46.2% / 31.4%	43.5% / 33.3%	18.1% / 31.4%	3.81 / 3.76	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 15.7%	33.55 / 27.18
15	@PIT	13 – 19 L	4.56	33.3% / 39.3%	11.1% / 10.7%	3.1% / 0.0%	3.25 / 4.75	59.5% / 35.3%	14.3% / 35.3%	4.79 / 2.06	78 / 45	48.2% / 46.9%	47.4% / 37.8%	19.2% / 5.5%	4.08 / 3.73	3.8% / 0.0%	53.8% / 37.8%	30.36 / 38.50
16	SF	17 – 20 L	-3.30	44.1% / 56.8%	11.8% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	5.53 / 8.27	37.5% / 55.0%	41.7% / 15.0%	3.75 / 3.80	58 / 57	38.5% / 60.9%	41.4% / 56.1%	33.1% / 29.4%	4.79 / 6.70	0.0% / 0.0%	41.4% / 35.1%	0.00 / 0.00

Miami Dolphins @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Jan 2

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis