Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – Tampa Bay Team Total Over (29.5 -115)

Alternate play is game over 48 points (up to -115)

Lean – TAMPA BAY (-10) over Miami

The Buccaneers averaged 35 points per game since last year’s bye week through week 2 of this season and now the offense is a little underrated after facing the Rams and Patriots. Tampa Bay’s offense gained 6.3 yards per play in Los Angeles and probably should’ve been in the 30s for points based on our metrics. The rain played a major role last Sunday night in New England, but it won’t be a factor this week. Tom Brady threw 22 passes with at least 10 air yards against the Patriots which I expect to continue versus a Dolphins defense rated 30th in explosive pass plays allowed. Miami’s defense is structured similarly to New England’s so Brady will have basically been preparing for two weeks.

Antonio Brown was targeted on a team high 38% of his routes last week and is now averaging 2.34 yards per route run. Brown will cause issues for Dolphins CB Byron Jones, who is dealing with a quad and Achilles injury.

Jacoby Brissett is averaging less than 4 yards per pass play for Miami, but I believe he will improve given his 5.6 yppp career prior to this season. Miami has a 65% pass play rate (4th) and that probably serves as the low end of possibilities in this matchup because no one has been able to run on the Buccaneers front. Tampa Bay’s rush defense is the best in the NFL according to our metrics, about a point per game better than average.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 13.8 points, with a predicted total of 50.4 points. The value on TB and the over is due to our model liking the Bucs’ offense in this game. Thus, the Tampa Bay Team Total Over is the optimal play and is a 1-Star Best Bet at 29.5 or less up to -120 odds.

Team Stats
Game Log

Dolphins
Buccaneers

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.8 38.3
Succ Pass Plays 45.6% 43.9%
Sack Rate 8.0% 3.8%
Int Rate 1.5% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 15.6% 21.7%
Big Pass Yards 28.1% 49.2%
NYPP 5.2 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 21.5 32.0
RB YPR 3.5 4.1
Stuff Rate 29.7% 25.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.0% 47.7%
Big Rush Yards 36.1% 51.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.3

Game

All Snaps 62.3 70.3
Early Down Succ 49.0% 43.1%
Succ Rate 45.3% 45.7%
Big Yards Rate 33.4% 50.1%
Yards Per Play 4.5 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 1.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.5 30.1
Run Ratio 35.0% 45.7%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -4.7 4.7

Points 15.5 27.3

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	17 – 16 W	3.2	51.7% / 56.4%	6.9% / 0.0%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.0 / 7.2	56.5% / 56.7%	30.4% / 13.3%	3.2 / 4.2	52 / 69	58.5% / 52.8%	53.8% / 56.5%	43.1% / 36.9%	5.3 / 5.9	0.0% / 2.9%	44.2% / 43.5%	0.0 / 0.0
2	BUF	0 – 35 L	-18.5	36.0% / 38.2%	12.0% / 2.9%	2.3% / 3.0%	3.6 / 5.3	25.0% / 43.3%	35.0% / 26.7%	3.6 / 4.8	70 / 64	33.3% / 36.0%	32.9% / 40.6%	11.9% / 52.5%	3.6 / 5.0	1.4% / 1.6%	28.6% / 46.9%	0.0 / 0.0
3	@LV	28 – 31 L	0.6	43.1% / 45.7%	3.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	4.2 / 8.4	44.4% / 48.6%	22.2% / 22.9%	4.9 / 4.0	78 / 81	45.5% / 46.2%	43.6% / 46.9%	31.3% / 54.8%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 43.2%	0.0 / 0.0
4	IND	17 – 27 L	-4.3	51.5% / 35.3%	9.1% / 5.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.7	50.0% / 42.4%	31.3% / 39.4%	2.2 / 4.2	49 / 67	58.8% / 37.3%	51.0% / 38.8%	47.4% / 56.1%	4.8 / 5.5	4.1% / 1.5%	32.7% / 49.3%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	31 – 29 W	3.2	56.0% / 57.6%	0.0% / 1.7%	4.0% / 1.7%	7.6 / 6.8	64.3% / 38.9%	7.1% / 27.8%	3.7 / 3.3	64 / 77	60.4% / 54.2%	57.8% / 53.2%	38.5% / 32.0%	6.7 / 6.0	3.1% / 0.0%	21.9% / 23.4%	0.0 / 0.0
2	ATL	48 – 25 W	9.9	48.7% / 46.9%	7.7% / 2.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	7.1 / 6.1	57.1% / 30.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	3.9 / 2.8	60 / 69	57.8% / 44.0%	51.7% / 42.0%	44.1% / 35.5%	6.0 / 5.1	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 29.0%	0.0 / 0.0
3	@LA	24 – 34 L	-8.0	55.2% / 56.4%	5.2% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 8.8	46.2% / 45.8%	23.1% / 29.2%	2.7 / 3.2	71 / 63	58.5% / 48.9%	53.5% / 52.4%	32.8% / 53.9%	6.6 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	18.3% / 38.1%	0.0 / 0.0
4	@NE	19 – 17 W	0.2	40.9% / 54.3%	2.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.1 / 7.0	53.3% / 25.0%	23.3% / 75.0%	4.0 / -0.1	74 / 54	46.3% / 59.5%	45.9% / 50.0%	42.3% / 22.6%	5.2 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.9%	40.5% / 14.8%	0.0 / 0.0

Miami Dolphins @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 10

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis