Miami Dolphins @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Dec 4
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -4, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Miami

· San Francisco’s defense hasn’t allowed a second half score since week 7, but the Dolphins have the right scheme to attack the 49ers coverage. The primary weaknesses in cover 3 are the seams (the area between the deep zones) and the flats (the area near the line of scrimmage towards each sideline).

· Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for a 56% seam target rate (2nd-highest) and leads the NFL with a 9.1-yard average depth of target to the seams. Tagovailoa had 262 passing yards and a touchdown targeting the seams last week.

· Miami WR Tyreek Hill has a 37% target rate versus single-high safety coverages (2nd). Hill is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (6th).

· The Dolphins would be the perfect offense to expose San Francisco’s cover 3 if LT Terron Armstead did not suffer a pec injury last week. Backup tackle Brandon Shell allowed five pressures on 20 snaps after coming in for Armstead against the Texans. Meanwhile, Austin Jackson surrendered six pressures from his right tackle spot last week.

· Armstead is the key to Miami’s pass protection. The Dolphins concede a 27% pressure rate with Armstead compared to a 51% pressure rate without him. San Francisco’s edge rush alone is producing 12.5 pressures a game and Tagovailoa likely won’t have time to attack the seams on Sunday.

· Jaelan Phillips, Christian Wilkins, Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram all had at least 3 pressures for Miami’s defensive line last week. However, Jimmy Garoppolo is cashing in on a 49ers offensive line ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency. Garoppolo is averaging 0.235 EPA/play (5th).

· The Dolphins are allowing 6.1 yards per target to running backs (26th) and they will struggle against RB Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (2nd).

· Our model makes San Francisco a 3.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.9.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • 49ers
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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