Game Analysis
Miami (-7) vs NY JETS
Lean – Under 45
Tua Tagovailoa is out this week but veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade based on our meetrics and he should have a good outing against New York’s aggressive defense
Sam Darnold is back at quarterback for the Jets but I’m not expecting much from New York’s offense on Sunday against a really good Miami defense – although Darnold has historically played better at home.
Our model favors the Dolphins by 9.2 points, with a predicted total of 43.1 points, but the Jets apply to a few strong contrary angles, including a 91-39 ATS angle that plays on teams in a game when the average points margin differential of the two teams is 20 points or more (Jets average point margin is -15.3 points and Miami is +6.2 points). A 94-43-5 ATS same season revenge dog angle also applies to the Jets. If you’re in a pool and the line is 7.5 points then I suggest taking the Jets here. Otherwise, flip a coin.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.9
39.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.5%
51.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.3%
32.3%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
26.9
-
RB YPR
3.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
14.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
58.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.6%
52.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
56.4%
58.3%
-
Succ Rate
52.2%
53.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.6%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
27.2
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
25.1
-
Game Control
5.0
-5.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.7
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.7%
55.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
3.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
36.4%
-
NYPP
4.9
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
22.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.2%
51.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
59.2
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
52.6%
-
Succ Rate
44.6%
49.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.8%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.3
31.1
-
Game Control
-8.3
8.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
11 – 21 L |
-5.7 |
51.6% / 61.9% |
3.2% / 9.5% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 6.7 |
51.9% / 66.7% |
18.5% / 11.9% |
3.2 / 5.2 |
58 / 63 |
55.6% / 68.6% |
51.7% / 65.1% |
23.4% / 33.1% |
4.6 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
46.6% / 66.7% |
20.8 / 29.4 |
2 |
BUF |
28 – 31 L |
-4.2 |
48.0% / 61.1% |
6.0% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 11.5 |
63.6% / 39.1% |
18.2% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.8 |
72 / 59 |
56.9% / 55.3% |
52.8% / 52.5% |
29.5% / 70.0% |
5.7 / 8.9 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
30.6% / 39.0% |
26.9 / 20.4 |
3 |
@JAC |
31 – 13 W |
12.9 |
66.7% / 54.3% |
4.8% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
7.4 / 5.3 |
47.2% / 52.9% |
27.8% / 5.9% |
3.8 / 4.2 |
57 / 63 |
54.8% / 62.0% |
54.4% / 54.0% |
31.0% / 19.2% |
5.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
63.2% / 27.0% |
35.8 / 23.5 |
4 |
SEA |
23 – 31 L |
-6.0 |
56.5% / 63.9% |
2.2% / 5.6% |
4.4% / 2.9% |
6.8 / 9.5 |
59.1% / 61.5% |
13.6% / 11.5% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
68 / 62 |
58.2% / 71.4% |
57.4% / 62.9% |
21.4% / 49.4% |
6.1 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.4% / 41.9% |
23.2 / 31.6 |
5 |
@SF |
43 – 17 W |
16.4 |
60.0% / 30.0% |
6.7% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 5.7% |
11.4 / 3.2 |
39.4% / 78.9% |
36.4% / 15.8% |
2.8 / 6.9 |
63 / 59 |
53.2% / 53.2% |
49.2% / 45.8% |
64.2% / 26.3% |
6.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
52.4% / 32.2% |
39.0 / 26.5 |
8 |
LA |
28 – 17 W |
9.2 |
43.5% / 46.0% |
4.3% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
40.0% / 65.5% |
24.0% / 13.8% |
2.2 / 4.5 |
48 / 92 |
48.6% / 56.2% |
41.7% / 52.2% |
0.0% / 21.0% |
3.0 / 5.1 |
4.2% / 2.2% |
52.1% / 31.5% |
34.6 / 28.2 |
9 |
@ARI |
34 – 31 W |
1.5 |
54.8% / 63.0% |
9.7% / 3.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.1 / 9.8 |
56.0% / 45.9% |
16.0% / 10.8% |
3.6 / 4.8 |
56 / 64 |
60.0% / 55.1% |
55.4% / 53.1% |
22.8% / 43.4% |
5.6 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
44.6% / 57.8% |
26.3 / 22.7 |
6 |
NYJ |
24 – 0 W |
15.8 |
54.8% / 31.9% |
6.5% / 6.4% |
6.9% / 2.3% |
6.2 / 3.1 |
56.0% / 54.5% |
12.0% / 27.3% |
4.4 / 5.2 |
56 / 69 |
63.8% / 44.9% |
55.4% / 39.1% |
36.4% / 69.2% |
5.4 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 31.9% |
37.1 / 18.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BUF |
17 – 27 L |
-12.9 |
36.8% / 55.1% |
7.9% / 6.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.3 / 6.2 |
60.0% / 40.6% |
20.0% / 31.3% |
3.5 / 3.1 |
53 / 81 |
47.5% / 48.4% |
43.4% / 49.4% |
47.2% / 27.5% |
4.8 / 5.0 |
1.9% / 2.5% |
28.3% / 39.5% |
20.7 / 39.5 |
2 |
SF |
13 – 31 L |
-14.2 |
39.4% / 53.3% |
3.0% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
5.2 / 5.9 |
48.3% / 27.6% |
27.6% / 48.3% |
3.6 / 6.3 |
62 / 59 |
48.9% / 38.6% |
43.5% / 40.7% |
33.2% / 48.7% |
4.5 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.8% / 49.2% |
28.7 / 27.9 |
3 |
@IND |
7 – 36 L |
-12.6 |
41.9% / 64.0% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 9.4 |
41.4% / 25.8% |
17.2% / 12.9% |
3.8 / 3.8 |
60 / 56 |
46.8% / 46.5% |
41.7% / 42.9% |
26.9% / 45.6% |
4.3 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 55.4% |
18.4 / 33.6 |
4 |
DEN |
28 – 37 L |
-1.6 |
34.0% / 45.2% |
12.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 9.7% |
3.8 / 7.8 |
54.2% / 28.1% |
20.8% / 25.0% |
5.4 / 3.7 |
74 / 63 |
41.5% / 36.2% |
40.5% / 36.5% |
44.2% / 60.4% |
4.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.4% / 50.8% |
30.3 / 33.1 |
5 |
ARI |
10 – 30 L |
-10.3 |
44.4% / 60.5% |
8.3% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
4.5 / 9.7 |
57.1% / 43.3% |
28.6% / 13.3% |
4.4 / 4.2 |
64 / 68 |
57.1% / 57.7% |
50.0% / 52.9% |
31.2% / 55.8% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.8% / 44.1% |
26.7 / 22.3 |
7 |
BUF |
10 – 18 L |
1.4 |
27.6% / 57.8% |
20.7% / 4.4% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 6.6 |
59.1% / 63.0% |
27.3% / 18.5% |
4.5 / 4.7 |
51 / 72 |
45.2% / 67.8% |
41.2% / 59.7% |
34.7% / 33.2% |
3.7 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
43.1% / 37.5% |
25.8 / 36.1 |
8 |
@KC |
9 – 35 L |
-13.1 |
35.5% / 63.8% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.1 / 9.5 |
52.0% / 40.0% |
12.0% / 30.0% |
3.7 / 2.5 |
56 / 67 |
48.8% / 58.8% |
42.9% / 56.7% |
12.2% / 38.7% |
3.9 / 7.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 29.9% |
25.5 / 28.8 |
9 |
NE |
27 – 30 L |
4.1 |
65.4% / 48.6% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 0.0% |
9.9 / 7.8 |
50.0% / 58.5% |
5.6% / 14.6% |
3.6 / 3.9 |
44 / 76 |
58.8% / 55.2% |
59.1% / 53.9% |
41.6% / 39.3% |
7.3 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.9% / 53.9% |
23.5 / 21.1 |
6 |
@MIA |
0 – 24 L |
-15.8 |
31.9% / 54.8% |
6.4% / 6.5% |
2.3% / 6.9% |
3.1 / 6.2 |
54.5% / 56.0% |
27.3% / 12.0% |
5.2 / 4.4 |
69 / 56 |
44.9% / 63.8% |
39.1% / 55.4% |
69.2% / 36.4% |
3.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 44.6% |
18.7 / 37.1 |