Miami Dolphins @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 145
Odds: New York Jets -5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY JETS (-5) over Miami

This divisional game will feature the worst secondaries in a game between NFL teams in recent memory. It looks like the Jets will be without safeties Jamal Adams (ankle) and Matthias Farley (ribs) along with cornerbacks Arthur Maulet (calf), Brian Poole (concussion) and Maurice Canady (illness). Adams is a Pro Bowler leading all safeties with 6.5 sacks and he has 14 run stops (10th). Poole has been one of the league’s top nickelbacks in 2019, surrendering only 0.62 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd). The Dolphins’ defense only had four players above replacement level to start the season, all in the secondary, and they will all be unavailable again on Sunday. Miami traded saftey Minkah Fitzpatrick early in the year and since Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones, and Bobby McCain have all suffered injuries.

I’m more optimistic about New York’s chances of exploiting the opposing secondary. The Dolphins have just a 28% pass rush win rate (31st) and the Jets have allowed only 4 sacks at home this year compared to 20 sacks on the road where communication is more difficult. Miami’s defense is conceding 7.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (29th) and Le’Veon Bell had 8 receptions the last time these two teams met, his second-highest total this season.

DeVante Parker is gaining 2.65 yards per route run for Miami since teammate Preston Williams went down but I think he will be contained in this matchup. Jets’ rookie cornerback Blessuan Austin is surrendering just 0.55 yards per cover snap since joining the starting lineup in week 10 (6th). Rookie RB Patrick Laird is averaging 2.27 yards per route run since his week 10 debut but the Jets pass defense ranks 7th versus opposing running backs by our metrics.

These secondaries are a combined 4.5 points worse than they were in week 1 at full health. Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick could end up in a shootout and our model favors New York by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.0 points. The Jets also apply to a 112-56-5 ATS home favorite bounce-back situation that is based on their humiliating 6-22 loss as a road favorite at Cincinnati last week and Miami is in a 24-74-4 ATS road underdog letdown situation based on their upset win at Philly. The Jets have won 3 of their last 4 home games (all as underdogs) and I think they’ll get their revenge for a loss in Miami earlier this season.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Jets


  • Pass Plays 40.8 34.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 41.6% 52.4%
  • Sack Rate 10.0% 3.8%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.4% 25.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.3% 46.3%
  • NYPP 5.3 7.7


  • Rush Plays 20.2 30.7
  • RB YPR 2.8 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 32.1% 15.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.9% 50.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 21.8% 36.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.0 4.6


  • All Snaps 61.0 64.9
  • Early Down Succ 41.8% 53.5%
  • Succ Rate 40.2% 51.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.0% 43.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.3 29.8
  • Run Ratio 33.0% 47.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 31.0
  • Game Control -7.6 7.6
  • Points 16.7 31.4
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