Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – NEW YORK JETS (+6) over Miami

The Dolphins were outgained by almost 2 yards per play against the Chargers in week 2 and my numbers say the Chargers should’ve won by nearly 9 points. Miami was able to come out victorious due to a significant edge in special teams as Miami made 4 of 4 field goals, including a 54-yarder, while the Chargers missed 2 field goals including what would have been the game-winning attempt in the final seconds.

The Jets are a bad team but they weren’t as bad last week as the 45-20 score against the Raiders indicates. My metrics show the Jets played about 10 points better than the final score of that game and Josh McCown actually played pretty well with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Preseason implied wins would have made this game MIA -6 and I haven’t seen anything from these two teams to change preseason expectations. While there is no line value in this game I do lean with the Jets on a basis of a 118-65-1 ATS situation that plays on home underdogs of more than 3 points that lost the previous week by 24 points or more. I’d consider the Jets a Strong Opinion if the line gets up to +7 points

Team Stats
Game Log

Dolphins
Jets

MIA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 40.0
Succ Pass Plays 44.4% 62.5%
Sack Rate 5.6% 2.5%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 26.5% 10.3%
Big Pass Yards 40.4% 21.1%
NYPP 6.3 8.1

Rush

Rush Plays 33.0 14.0
RB YPR 3.5 3.4
Stuff Rate 30.3% 50.0%
Succ Rush Plays 36.4% 28.6%
Big Rush Yards 35.7% 84.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 3.1

Game

All Snaps 69.0 54.0
Early Down Succ 43.4% 58.7%
Succ Rate 40.6% 53.7%
Big Yards Rate 38.9% 28.6%
Yards Per Play 4.9 6.8
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 29.4
Run Ratio 47.8% 25.9%
Starting Field Pos 26.4 24.9
Game Control -2.0 2.0

Points 19.0 17.0

NYJ

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.5 29.0
Succ Pass Plays 41.2% 53.8%
Sack Rate 8.1% 3.3%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 9.9% 12.8%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 57.8%
NYPP 4.7 7.7

Rush

Rush Plays 21.0 36.0
RB YPR 3.3 5.2
Stuff Rate 25.2% 28.9%
Succ Rush Plays 43.3% 37.0%
Big Rush Yards 33.4% 67.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 5.5

Game

All Snaps 55.5 65.0
Early Down Succ 44.8% 43.3%
Succ Rate 43.3% 45.0%
Big Yards Rate 34.8% 62.1%
Yards Per Play 4.4 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 30.1
Run Ratio 37.9% 54.5%
Starting Field Pos 28.4 30.5
Game Control -7.7 7.7

Points 16.0 33.0

2017 Game Log	PASS	RUSH	GAMES
2	@LAC	19 – 17 W	-2.0	44.4% / 62.5%	5.6% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.1	36.4% / 28.6%	30.3% / 50.0%	3.4 / 3.1	69 / 54	43.4% / 58.7%	40.6% / 53.7%	38.9% / 28.6%	4.9 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 25.9%	26.4 / 24.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	12 – 21 L	-3.8	37.5% / 43.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	5.1% / 3.6%	4.4 / 7.3	25.0% / 33.3%	31.3% / 24.4%	2.4 / 4.3	56 / 75	35.9% / 37.7%	33.9% / 37.3%	26.5% / 68.1%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 60.0%	29.7 / 25.3
2	@OAK	20 – 45 L	-11.6	44.8% / 64.3%	13.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 8.2	61.5% / 40.7%	19.2% / 33.3%	4.9 / 6.7	55 / 55	53.7% / 48.8%	52.7% / 52.7%	43.0% / 56.1%	4.9 / 7.5	3.6% / 0.0%	47.3% / 49.1%	27.1 / 35.7

Miami Dolphins @

New York Jets

Sun, Sep 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis