Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Miami (-1.5) over NEW ENGLAND

• The Patriots are one of 7 offenses averaging more EPA/rush than EPA/dropback and opponents can tee off on New England’s offensive line when they don’t establish a ground game, which I expect to happen on Sunday against a Dolphins’ defense that is allowing just a 33.9% rush success rate (6th).
• Jacoby Brissett was lit up last week in San Francisco with pressure on 49% of his dropbacks, including 6 sacks. To make matters worse, Patriots starting C David Andrews is expected to have surgery to repair a significant shoulder injury.
• New England backup center Nick Leverett will struggle across from interior defender Zach Sieler, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• The Patriots are targeting tight ends on a league-high 31.1% of passes and Miami starting S Jordan Poyer is out. However, Marcus Maye is among the league’s most capable backup safeties. Maye was the starter on a Saints defense who allowed only 5.4 yppp in 2022 (2nd) before he was limited last season with rib and shoulder injuries as well as a suspension.
• The Dolphins offensive line has not figured out blitz pickup this season and New England’s defense has a 39.9% blitz rate (4th-highest). Miami’s yards per attempt against the blitz is just 47% of the yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (31st).
• Tyler Huntley will be glad to get back Dolphins starting left tackle Terron Armstead to contain Patriots edge defender Keion White, who ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Miami’s offense will also have WR Odell Beckham making his debut and RB Raheem Mostert back on the field while New England’s defense will be without starting safety Kyle Dugger, who is worth 0.6 points by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 35.4 points, and the Patriots apply to a 26-77-2 ATS situation.

Miami is a Strong Opinion at -2 or less.