Game Analysis

Miami (-3) vs NEW ENGLAND

· Bill Belichick had a great gameplan in week 1 and limited the Eagles to a 36% success rate. Philadelphia’s 251 yards of offense was the second lowest for them since the start of the 2021 season. Now, Belichick will face a new challenge to scheme against.

· The Dolphins averaged 0.38 EPA/play in week 1 and had 23 plays gain 10 yards or more. Tua Tagovailoa was bombing it with a third of his throws having at least 15 air yards.

· Tyreek Hill has now run 407 routes with Tagovailoa on the field the past two seasons and he is averaging an incredible 3.72 yards per route run. The Chargers gave Hill single-high coverage on 20 routes last Sunday. Hill faced single-high coverage on only 7 routes all last season. I know Belichick won’t make the same mistake and New England’s secondary will likely use bracket coverage on Hill all game.

· This means the Patriots could be leaving rookie CB Christian Gonzalez on an island against WR Jaylen Waddle, who led the NFL by averaging 0.64 EPA/target last year.

· Miami LT Terron Armstead is back practicing after missing week 1 which will be a boost to the offense. Armstead ranked 7th in pass-blocking efficiency last year.

· Dolphins RT Austin Jackson remained atrocious though, surrendering 3 pressures on 13 true pass-blocking sets last week, and he will struggle across from edge defender Matthew Judon, who ranked 6th in pass-rushing efficiency last week with most of his work coming against All-Pro Lane Johnson.

· Miami’s defense surrendered an absurd 70% rush success rate to the Chargers, and I expect the Patriots to pound the rock on Sunday night.

· New England’s offense should be getting both starting guards Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange back on the field after the two backups combined to allow 12 pressures last week.

· Patriots’ backup RT Calvin Anderson will have his hands full versus Dolphins edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who had 7 pressures in week 1 (3rd). LT Trent Brown’s status is up in the air with a concussion.

· Hunter Henry led all TEs last week gaining 1.15 EPA/target and Mac Jones should look his way again as Miami’s Jerome Baker had the 9th-worst coverage grade among LBs in week 1.

· Our model favors the Dolphins by 2.3 points with a predicted total of 48.4 points.