Game Analysis

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5/-3) vs Miami

· The Patriots playoff odds are down to roughly 15% after losing to the Bengals last week and now it seems like New England’s secondary could be without three starters against two of the best wide receivers in the NFL.

· Patriots’ cornerbacks Jack Jones (knee), Marcus Jones (concussion), and Jalen Mills (groin) are all in danger of missing this game. Jaylen Waddle leads the league averaging 0.70 EPA/target and Tyreek Hill is gaining 0.41 EPA/target (15th).

· Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions in the second half last week against the Packers and it was later revealed he had a concussion.

· Teddy Bridgewater will be under center for the Dolphins in this game and he is a downgrade of 2.2 points from Tagovailoa.

· This may seem like a small adjustment for a quarterback getting MVP buzz prior to the recent skid but Bridgewater is one of the best backups in the NFL. Bridgewater has averaged 7.4 yppp on 66 dropbacks in Mike McDaniel’s system this season and he was a decent quarterback with lesser talent around him before coming to Miami (6.3 yppp in his career).

· The betting market also only moved about 2.5 points when it was announced Tagovailoa was out.

· Miami right tackle Brandon Shell ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and he will likely surrender at least one sack versus edge defender Matthew Judon, who is second in the NFL with 15.5 sacks in 2022.

· New England’s protection for Mac Jones will also be dicey in this game. The Patriots offensive line has a league-high 32 penalties this season.

· New England backup RT Conor McDermott will struggle across from edge defender Jaelan Phillips, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Mac Jones’ lack of mobility in the pocket kills him against the blitz. Jones’ first down rate is 5 percentage points lower when the defense sends extra pass rushers. For comparison, over 80% of qualifying quarterbacks have a higher first down rate versus the blitz. Miami’s defense has a 32% blitz rate (6th).

· The Patriots will need to set up the screen game. New England’s offense is targeting running backs the 2nd-most often in the NFL (24% rate) and the Dolphins are allowing 6.2 yards per target to opposing RBs (25th).

· Our model makes New England a 1.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 41.7. There is some value on Miami but New England is 30-9-1 ATS in regular season games after consecutive spread losses (3-0 the last two years with Jones at QB) and I used the Patriots -2.5 in my pool (tossup for me at -3).