Miami Dolphins @

New England Patriots

Sun, Dec 29
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 121
Odds: New England Patriots -16.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) vs Miami

Bill Belichick prefers more conservative play calling late in the year to reduce the total amount of plays for less chance of injury. The Patriots have run the ball on 42% of snaps in the first 15 weeks of the season during the Bill Belchick era, which is right around league-average. However, New England’s 49% run play rate in week 16 and 17 is the highest in the NFL since 2000. I expect the Patriots to focus on the ground game and protect Tom Brady, especially with right tackle Marcus Cannon banged-up. Backup tackle Marshall Newhouse ranks 10th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Miami’s rush defense ranks 9th but they likely won’t play as well this week. Linebacker¬†Raekwon McMillan was added to the injured reserve last week and he is the Dolphins best rush defender with a 10.4% run stop rate (4th).

Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well the last month against some soft pass defenses but he likely won’t have any success on Sunday. Fitzpatrick averaged just 2.6 yards per pass play with 3 interceptions in week 2 versus New England’s secondary. DeVante Parker is gaining 2.37 yards per route run since week 10 when Preston Williams went down (7th), but he will be blanketed by Defensive Player of the Year¬†Stephon Gilmore.

The Patriots need a win to lock up the first round bye. Our model makes New England a 16.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.8 but I’m staying off the total in this game because I believe the Patriots will be conservative with their play calling.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Patriots
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.8 35.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.6% 51.9%
  • Sack Rate 9.0% 3.9%
  • Int Rate 3.3% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 25.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.0% 46.6%
  • NYPP 5.5 7.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.8 30.5
  • RB YPR 2.9 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 30.9% 16.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 47.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 27.7% 32.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 63.6 66.4
  • Early Down Succ 43.2% 52.5%
  • Succ Rate 41.1% 50.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.8% 42.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.8 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.0 29.1
  • Run Ratio 34.0% 46.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.9 30.8
  • Game Control -5.7 5.7
 
  • Points 18.6 31.3
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