Game Analysis
NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) vs Miami
Bill Belichick prefers more conservative play calling late in the year to reduce the total amount of plays for less chance of injury. The Patriots have run the ball on 42% of snaps in the first 15 weeks of the season during the Bill Belchick era, which is right around league-average. However, New England’s 49% run play rate in week 16 and 17 is the highest in the NFL since 2000. I expect the Patriots to focus on the ground game and protect Tom Brady, especially with right tackle Marcus Cannon banged-up. Backup tackle Marshall Newhouse ranks 10th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Miami’s rush defense ranks 9th but they likely won’t play as well this week. Linebacker Raekwon McMillan was added to the injured reserve last week and he is the Dolphins best rush defender with a 10.4% run stop rate (4th).
Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well the last month against some soft pass defenses but he likely won’t have any success on Sunday. Fitzpatrick averaged just 2.6 yards per pass play with 3 interceptions in week 2 versus New England’s secondary. DeVante Parker is gaining 2.37 yards per route run since week 10 when Preston Williams went down (7th), but he will be blanketed by Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
The Patriots need a win to lock up the first round bye. Our model makes New England a 16.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.8 but I’m staying off the total in this game because I believe the Patriots will be conservative with their play calling.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.8
35.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.6%
51.9%
-
Sack Rate
9.0%
3.9%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
25.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.0%
46.6%
-
NYPP
5.5
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
30.5
-
RB YPR
2.9
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
30.9%
16.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.6%
47.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.7%
32.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
52.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
50.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.8%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.0
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.0%
46.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
30.8
-
Game Control
-5.7
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.2
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
37.3%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
4.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
22.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.0%
38.0%
-
NYPP
6.1
4.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
22.9
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.4%
43.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
32.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
69.2
58.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.9%
44.0%
-
Succ Rate
45.2%
38.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.5
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
39.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.7
25.2
-
Game Control
6.4
-6.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
10 – 59 L |
-32.5 |
37.1% / 74.1% |
8.6% / 3.7% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 14.0 |
33.3% / 58.7% |
50.0% / 13.0% |
1.8 / 5.8 |
47 / 73 |
37.8% / 65.5% |
36.2% / 64.4% |
48.5% / 66.7% |
4.3 / 8.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
25.5% / 63.0% |
22.6 / 31.6 |
2 |
NE |
0 – 43 L |
-16.0 |
28.3% / 60.0% |
15.2% / 6.7% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 8.5 |
33.3% / 60.0% |
33.3% / 14.3% |
2.8 / 3.6 |
61 / 65 |
33.3% / 62.3% |
29.5% / 60.0% |
13.0% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
24.6% / 53.8% |
27.9 / 33.5 |
3 |
@DAL |
6 – 31 L |
-11.1 |
40.9% / 48.5% |
6.8% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 7.3 |
37.5% / 67.6% |
29.2% / 2.9% |
3.0 / 6.9 |
68 / 67 |
46.0% / 60.7% |
39.7% / 58.2% |
31.4% / 56.9% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
35.3% / 50.7% |
28.7 / 26.1 |
4 |
LAC |
10 – 30 L |
-6.4 |
48.3% / 71.9% |
17.2% / 3.1% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 9.7 |
55.6% / 39.4% |
22.2% / 21.2% |
4.0 / 2.4 |
47 / 65 |
52.8% / 57.1% |
51.1% / 55.4% |
34.3% / 23.1% |
5.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 50.8% |
25.0 / 31.8 |
6 |
WAS |
16 – 17 L |
-6.1 |
33.3% / 40.0% |
10.4% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 6.6 |
52.4% / 45.5% |
19.0% / 18.2% |
4.0 / 4.4 |
69 / 58 |
42.3% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 43.1% |
28.0% / 42.8% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.4% / 56.9% |
28.3 / 27.3 |
7 |
@BUF |
21 – 31 L |
-0.6 |
55.6% / 50.0% |
2.8% / 7.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
33.3% / 13.0% |
3.6 / 5.1 |
66 / 51 |
52.0% / 55.0% |
53.0% / 51.0% |
45.9% / 61.3% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 45.1% |
25.5 / 30.2 |
8 |
@PIT |
14 – 27 L |
3.2 |
39.5% / 36.8% |
10.5% / 5.3% |
5.9% / 2.8% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
36.8% / 48.3% |
10.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 5.4 |
57 / 67 |
41.3% / 41.5% |
38.6% / 41.8% |
0.0% / 51.8% |
4.0 / 5.9 |
3.5% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 43.3% |
33.5 / 31.3 |
9 |
NYJ |
26 – 18 W |
4.5 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
37.5% / 23.8% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
23.4% / 26.8% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 33.3% |
31.2 / 30.7 |
10 |
@IND |
16 – 12 W |
4.1 |
36.1% / 37.5% |
8.3% / 2.5% |
3.0% / 7.7% |
4.4 / 4.8 |
26.9% / 41.4% |
38.5% / 31.0% |
2.7 / 3.8 |
62 / 69 |
30.2% / 41.5% |
32.3% / 39.1% |
22.7% / 55.0% |
3.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.9% / 42.0% |
33.4 / 32.5 |
11 |
BUF |
20 – 37 L |
-10.6 |
36.5% / 51.5% |
13.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 7.8 |
30.8% / 38.2% |
46.2% / 20.6% |
1.8 / 4.9 |
65 / 67 |
38.3% / 47.1% |
35.4% / 44.8% |
38.0% / 41.5% |
4.7 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
20.0% / 50.7% |
28.2 / 29.2 |
12 |
@CLE |
24 – 41 L |
-16.5 |
37.2% / 60.0% |
9.3% / 2.9% |
5.1% / 2.9% |
4.5 / 9.1 |
40.0% / 59.4% |
15.0% / 6.3% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
63 / 67 |
38.3% / 62.1% |
38.1% / 59.7% |
25.7% / 35.3% |
4.5 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 47.8% |
28.5 / 32.2 |
13 |
PHI |
37 – 31 W |
-3.8 |
55.8% / 47.9% |
7.0% / 4.2% |
2.5% / 2.2% |
8.2 / 6.1 |
25.0% / 52.6% |
50.0% / 0.0% |
2.9 / 4.8 |
63 / 67 |
44.7% / 49.1% |
46.0% / 49.3% |
48.9% / 28.0% |
6.5 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 28.4% |
24.7 / 35.6 |
14 |
@NYJ |
21 – 22 L |
-2.4 |
48.7% / 45.9% |
5.1% / 2.7% |
2.7% / 2.8% |
6.2 / 7.1 |
42.3% / 37.5% |
19.2% / 21.9% |
4.7 / 3.5 |
65 / 69 |
50.0% / 45.3% |
46.2% / 42.0% |
36.2% / 30.2% |
5.6 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 46.4% |
27.7 / 30.0 |
15 |
@NYG |
20 – 36 L |
-5.5 |
43.2% / 56.7% |
6.8% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
6.0 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 51.5% |
24.0% / 15.2% |
4.9 / 4.2 |
69 / 63 |
49.1% / 55.8% |
43.5% / 54.0% |
51.8% / 60.0% |
5.6 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
36.2% / 52.4% |
28.4 / 32.5 |
16 |
CIN |
38 – 35 W |
15.0 |
48.1% / 48.3% |
3.7% / 6.7% |
1.9% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 6.2 |
38.2% / 24.0% |
35.3% / 28.0% |
2.8 / 2.4 |
88 / 85 |
47.8% / 44.4% |
44.3% / 41.2% |
44.6% / 28.4% |
5.7 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.2% |
38.6% / 29.4% |
24.7 / 28.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PIT |
33 – 3 W |
16.3 |
57.9% / 35.4% |
2.6% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
9.6 / 5.8 |
41.4% / 53.8% |
24.1% / 23.1% |
3.4 / 2.5 |
67 / 61 |
50.9% / 43.5% |
50.7% / 39.3% |
53.1% / 37.3% |
6.9 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 21.3% |
27.8 / 26.0 |
2 |
@MIA |
43 – 0 W |
16.0 |
60.0% / 28.3% |
6.7% / 15.2% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
8.5 / 3.1 |
60.0% / 33.3% |
14.3% / 33.3% |
3.6 / 2.8 |
65 / 61 |
62.3% / 33.3% |
60.0% / 29.5% |
28.6% / 13.0% |
5.9 / 3.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
53.8% / 24.6% |
33.5 / 27.9 |
3 |
NYJ |
30 – 14 W |
17.6 |
54.3% / 22.2% |
2.2% / 18.5% |
2.2% / 4.5% |
6.8 / 2.6 |
33.3% / 20.0% |
14.8% / 30.0% |
2.5 / 1.8 |
73 / 47 |
50.0% / 29.4% |
46.6% / 21.3% |
35.7% / 21.9% |
5.2 / 2.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
37.0% / 42.6% |
40.3 / 18.2 |
4 |
@BUF |
16 – 10 W |
7.9 |
20.5% / 36.7% |
0.0% / 10.2% |
2.6% / 9.1% |
3.8 / 4.9 |
47.8% / 50.0% |
17.4% / 13.6% |
3.2 / 6.1 |
62 / 71 |
33.3% / 47.3% |
30.6% / 40.8% |
32.1% / 46.9% |
3.6 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 31.0% |
27.1 / 29.9 |
5 |
@WAS |
33 – 7 W |
9.4 |
48.9% / 30.3% |
8.5% / 18.2% |
2.3% / 3.7% |
6.6 / 2.3 |
44.4% / 45.0% |
25.9% / 15.0% |
4.8 / 7.3 |
74 / 53 |
51.7% / 42.9% |
47.3% / 35.8% |
49.3% / 50.5% |
6.0 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
36.5% / 37.7% |
32.4 / 23.8 |
6 |
NYG |
35 – 14 W |
6.7 |
52.3% / 34.4% |
6.8% / 3.1% |
2.4% / 9.7% |
7.1 / 5.0 |
41.2% / 31.3% |
29.4% / 18.8% |
3.4 / 3.3 |
78 / 48 |
50.8% / 38.9% |
47.4% / 33.3% |
51.5% / 34.7% |
5.5 / 4.4 |
1.3% / 2.1% |
43.6% / 33.3% |
33.3 / 26.6 |
7 |
@NYJ |
33 – 0 W |
19.6 |
48.9% / 18.2% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
2.2% / 12.5% |
5.5 / 2.2 |
38.2% / 50.0% |
47.1% / 20.0% |
2.2 / 4.1 |
79 / 53 |
45.0% / 35.0% |
44.3% / 30.2% |
38.1% / 32.5% |
4.1 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 3.8% |
43.0% / 37.7% |
37.4 / 24.3 |
8 |
CLE |
27 – 13 W |
12.1 |
43.6% / 38.9% |
7.7% / 13.9% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
6.1 / 4.2 |
33.3% / 59.1% |
40.7% / 22.7% |
2.9 / 7.2 |
66 / 58 |
39.6% / 53.3% |
39.4% / 46.6% |
52.8% / 59.7% |
4.8 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
40.9% / 37.9% |
36.2 / 25.2 |
9 |
@BAL |
20 – 37 L |
-8.4 |
52.1% / 62.5% |
4.2% / 4.2% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 6.8 |
64.7% / 48.8% |
11.8% / 17.1% |
4.4 / 5.1 |
65 / 65 |
59.6% / 56.9% |
55.4% / 53.8% |
19.0% / 39.5% |
5.3 / 5.7 |
1.5% / 3.1% |
26.2% / 63.1% |
34.7 / 20.0 |
11 |
@PHI |
17 – 10 W |
0.8 |
38.8% / 37.8% |
2.0% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 3.9 |
36.4% / 57.1% |
22.7% / 23.8% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
71 / 66 |
40.7% / 51.0% |
38.0% / 43.9% |
21.5% / 42.4% |
4.2 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
31.0% / 31.8% |
31.0 / 17.2 |
12 |
DAL |
13 – 9 W |
4.1 |
35.9% / 36.4% |
5.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
4.6 / 6.4 |
44.4% / 53.8% |
22.2% / 15.4% |
3.7 / 4.2 |
66 / 59 |
46.0% / 53.3% |
39.4% / 44.1% |
66.0% / 32.1% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.9% / 44.1% |
41.4 / 20.8 |
13 |
@HOU |
22 – 28 L |
-9.0 |
36.0% / 51.7% |
6.0% / 10.3% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 7.7 |
48.3% / 21.7% |
20.7% / 26.1% |
5.0 / 2.3 |
79 / 52 |
38.3% / 36.8% |
40.5% / 38.5% |
56.9% / 34.4% |
5.7 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 44.2% |
21.1 / 32.5 |
14 |
KC |
16 – 23 L |
-5.9 |
32.5% / 48.8% |
7.5% / 2.4% |
2.7% / 2.5% |
4.6 / 6.6 |
45.5% / 31.0% |
22.7% / 17.2% |
4.3 / 2.6 |
62 / 70 |
42.6% / 45.1% |
37.1% / 41.4% |
42.4% / 36.1% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
35.5% / 41.4% |
34.8 / 27.8 |
15 |
@CIN |
34 – 13 W |
7.6 |
29.0% / 41.9% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 12.9% |
3.7 / 4.9 |
62.5% / 46.9% |
15.6% / 12.5% |
5.5 / 5.1 |
63 / 63 |
50.0% / 48.9% |
46.0% / 44.4% |
47.1% / 40.6% |
4.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.8% / 50.8% |
35.3 / 26.8 |
16 |
BUF |
24 – 17 W |
1.0 |
54.5% / 36.7% |
0.0% / 13.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.9 |
54.3% / 43.5% |
14.3% / 17.4% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
68 / 53 |
58.0% / 45.0% |
54.4% / 39.6% |
33.6% / 70.1% |
6.1 / 5.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 43.4% |
24.6 / 31.6 |