Game Analysis

Lean – NEW ENGLAND (-6.5/-7) vs Miami

New England lost by double-digits in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2002 and there are numerous typical early-season question marks surrounding the Patriots. New England’s offense has been shut down because Rob Gronkowski seems to be the only player that can beat man coverage. Teams simply double-cover Gronkowski so Tom Brady has nowhere to go with the ball and is forced to find a check-down option. Subsequently, the Patriots are leading the NFL with 38% of their targets going to running backs, up 11 percentage points from their average a year ago. Julian Edelman will give Brady another threat on the outside when he returns next week, but he’s not going to completely solve the issue as NFL Next Gen Stats show he only created league-average separation during his last full season in 2016. The Patriots need Josh Gordon to be on the field and effective for their offense to be elite. In the short term, the check-downs may prove effective versus a Dolphins defense allowing 6.9 yards per target to opposing running backs and Brady spoke about getting the ball to James White more often. Miami will be without William Hayes and maybe Reshad Jones (questionable) for this game, which will greatly affect their rush defense. Hayes recorded an 11.7% run stop rate last season (12th) and Jones tied for the league-lead among safeties with 26 run stops. New England’s running backs should find success through the air and on the ground in this game.

The Patriots defense surrendered 7.8 yards per play the last two weeks with top pass rusher Trey Flowers out with a concussion, but Flowers should be back on Sunday. Miami’s offense is terrible running to the right side averaging just 1.5 yards per rush and without 4-time Pro Bowl left guard Josh Sitton last week they gained only 2.9 yards per rush overall versus a Raiders rush defense ranked 31st coming into the game. New England’s rush defense ranks 28th in our metrics, but I expect them to limit Miami’s hopeless ground game. However, the Dolphins aerial attack has been effective with the return of Ryan Tannehill, who missed all of last season after having a career-best season in 2016. Miami’s offense should improve going forward, as they rank 10th in early down efficiency but just 26th on 3rd-down. Third down performance typically regresses towards early down performance as the season progresses, which bodes well for the Dolphins.

New England hasn’t lost consecutive games often during coach Bill Belichick’s tenure but the Pats are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in that situation going back to 2002, with the only spread loss being a 10-point win (favored by 13 in that game). The Patriots obviously haven’t played well in their first 3 games but it’s unwise to count out Brady and company when they’ve been under-performing. In fact, the Patriots are 27-6-1 ATS the last 13 years when they enter a game with a losing spread record for the season (25-3-1 ATS when not favored by 9 points or more), including 13-0 ATS if they are also coming off a straight up loss in their most recent game. I should also mention that New England is 52-16-5 ATS at home with Tom Brady starting when not favored by more than 7 points, including 17-2-2 ATS since 2013 and 5-0 since the start of the 2016 season.

Our model favors New England by 7 points with a true total of 48 points, so there isn’t much line value in this game. However, I’ll lean with the Patriots at -7 points or less based on their history of responding to adversity with good performances and their success at home when not laying more than TD.