Game Analysis
Lean – MINNESOTA (-7.5) over Miami
These two teams couldn’t feel more differently about last week’s performance with Miami winning on a miracle play and Minnesota shut out until garbage time while enduring their second consecutive loss while fighting for a playoff spot. Miami is still alive in the playoff hunt to but I don’t think they’ll be after this week.
I suppose it’s pretty obvious that the Dolphins would be in a letdown situation after the “Miami Miracle” win over the Patriots and teams that beat a divisional foe as an underdog of 6 points or more are just 141-199-9 ATS the next week. The fact that Minnesota has lost two games in a row makes it even less likely that the Dolphins will cover this week, as the situation has a record of only 33-71-2 ATS if the opponent is on a losing streak (0-5 ATS for dogs of more than 7 points).
The Vikings fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo because Mike Zimmer was frustrated he wasn’t establishing the run. I expect the Vikings to utilize their ground game more often moving forward, which will likely hurt their offense. Minnesota’s rushing attack ranks 31st in our numbers and they should focus on getting the ball to their two talented receivers.
The Dolphins moved Minkah Fitzpatrick to the outside after the bye week despite the rookie playing like one of the best nickelbacks in the league through the first 10 weeks. Fitzpatrick has not responded well, conceding just 1.20 yards per cover snap the last 3 games. Xavien Howard is nursing a knee injury, but if he is able to play Miami should use Howard on the outside versus Stefon Diggs and Fitzpatrick in the slot on Adam Thielen.
It looks like Ryan Tannehill will play through an ankle injury on Sunday that could affect his mobility, which would be a problem against this Vikings defensive front. Mike Zimmer saves his most creative blitzes for 3rd-down and Minnesota holding opponents under a 30% conversion rate for the second-straight season likely isn’t just due to variance, as we would assume with most lucky 3rd-down defenses.
Our model makes Minnesota a 7.7-point favorite, so the line is fair, but the situation calls for a Miami letdown and I’ll lean with the Vikings.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.5
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
49.7%
-
Sack Rate
9.5%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
4.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
22.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.1%
45.3%
-
NYPP
6.7
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.5
30.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
20.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
42.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
48.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
54.9
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.0%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.7%
46.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.3
30.3
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
47.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
26.4
-
Game Control
-1.8
1.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.0
33.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.5%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
18.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.2%
39.8%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.6
28.2
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
27.4%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.6%
49.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.6%
28.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.3%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
49.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.6%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
30.4
-
Run Ratio
34.2%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.0
-
Game Control
-1.2
1.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% /
36.8% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
7.1% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
53.3% /
44.8% |
26.7% /
17.2% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
59 /
67 |
66.7% /
41.2% |
54.2% /
40.3% |
44.3% /
17.0% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
43.3% |
35.5 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% /
43.2% |
14.8% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
4.5 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
26.3% |
26.5% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
2.2 |
61 /
63 |
55.8% /
39.6% |
49.2% /
38.1% |
36.2% /
50.3% |
4.3 /
5.7 |
3.3% /
1.6% |
55.7% /
30.2% |
34.4 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% /
57.1% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
13.3 /
7.7 |
20.0% /
55.9% |
33.3% /
14.7% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
40 /
76 |
43.3% /
62.1% |
37.5% /
56.6% |
62.8% /
32.6% |
9.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
44.7% |
30.6 /
19.7 |
| 4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
5.7% |
4.3 /
7.8 |
11.1% /
34.9% |
38.9% /
18.6% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
45 /
78 |
21.2% /
34.5% |
24.4% /
38.5% |
20.9% /
45.1% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
55.1% |
29.5 /
32.0 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% /
68.2% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
10.5% /
5.0% |
7.7 /
10.4 |
45.5% /
29.6% |
13.6% /
25.9% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
44 /
49 |
48.9% /
45.7% |
61.4% /
46.9% |
25.3% /
52.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.1% |
25.5 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% /
54.5% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.7% /
3.2% |
8.8 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
43.8% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
74 /
65 |
53.4% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
49.2% |
48.2% /
60.7% |
7.3 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
3.1% |
41.9% /
49.2% |
28.7 /
25.3 |
| 7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% /
60.9% |
11.4% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
9.1 |
47.4% /
54.1% |
26.3% /
21.6% |
5.6 /
6.8 |
54 /
60 |
46.5% /
66.0% |
48.1% /
56.7% |
40.4% /
60.8% |
6.0 /
7.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
61.7% |
25.2 /
23.0 |
| 8 |
@HOU |
23 – 42 L |
-7.4 |
40.0% /
45.0% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
12.0 |
64.0% /
38.9% |
20.0% /
19.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
65 /
56 |
54.9% /
39.0% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
34.3% /
64.0% |
5.7 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.5% /
64.3% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
13 – 6 W |
3.2 |
42.9% /
34.9% |
14.3% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
24.1% /
38.1% |
24.1% /
28.6% |
2.3 /
3.8 |
57 /
64 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
33.3% /
35.9% |
15.3% /
41.8% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.9% /
32.8% |
32.4 /
18.4 |
| 10 |
@GB |
12 – 31 L |
-9.9 |
37.2% /
50.0% |
14.0% /
6.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
13.0% /
10.7% |
5.7 /
7.1 |
66 /
58 |
45.8% /
58.5% |
43.9% /
50.0% |
38.1% /
54.5% |
4.5 /
6.6 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
34.8% /
48.3% |
31.4 /
35.7 |
| 12 |
@IND |
24 – 27 L |
2.2 |
42.3% /
61.5% |
3.8% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.7 /
8.6 |
42.3% /
53.8% |
26.9% /
19.2% |
4.4 /
4.5 |
52 /
65 |
46.2% /
62.7% |
42.3% /
58.5% |
55.6% /
46.6% |
6.1 /
7.0 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
50.0% /
40.0% |
28.8 /
24.4 |
| 13 |
BUF |
21 – 17 W |
4.1 |
51.9% /
37.1% |
11.1% /
5.7% |
4.2% /
6.1% |
4.3 /
6.2 |
28.0% /
51.6% |
40.0% /
22.6% |
2.5 /
6.4 |
52 /
66 |
48.7% /
46.2% |
40.4% /
43.9% |
16.9% /
68.0% |
3.4 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
48.1% /
47.0% |
28.6 /
23.4 |
| 14 |
NE |
34 – 33 W |
-2.0 |
45.8% /
53.3% |
20.8% /
4.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
7.6 |
71.4% /
33.3% |
14.3% /
23.3% |
9.0 /
2.6 |
45 /
75 |
65.8% /
42.4% |
57.8% /
45.3% |
58.5% /
28.0% |
9.2 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.7% /
40.0% |
25.3 /
35.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
24 – 16 W |
7.6 |
43.6% /
38.9% |
7.7% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
5.8 /
6.6 |
40.6% /
44.0% |
21.9% /
32.0% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
71 /
61 |
43.4% /
41.7% |
42.3% /
41.0% |
24.5% /
60.9% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
45.1% /
41.0% |
33.3 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
@GB |
29 – 29 T |
-6.3 |
56.0% /
48.9% |
4.0% /
8.9% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.6 |
44.4% /
54.2% |
5.6% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
4.1 |
68 /
69 |
53.7% /
55.4% |
52.9% /
50.7% |
44.4% /
31.3% |
7.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
26.5% /
34.8% |
26.5 /
29.9 |
| 3 |
BUF |
6 – 27 L |
-22.0 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
6.8% /
12.0% |
1.8% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.6 |
16.7% /
42.1% |
50.0% /
23.7% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
65 /
63 |
48.0% /
42.9% |
44.6% /
41.3% |
3.8% /
42.1% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
9.2% /
60.3% |
17.7 /
40.2 |
| 4 |
@LA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.9 |
51.9% /
60.0% |
7.4% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
13.0 |
35.3% /
57.1% |
35.3% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
71 /
56 |
45.3% /
68.1% |
47.9% /
58.9% |
38.8% /
55.7% |
6.3 /
9.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.9% /
37.5% |
27.2 /
26.6 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
23 – 21 W |
7.0 |
74.2% /
80.8% |
3.2% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
10.9 |
44.0% /
58.8% |
20.0% /
11.8% |
3.2 /
4.8 |
56 /
43 |
62.5% /
63.6% |
60.7% /
72.1% |
48.8% /
51.9% |
6.7 /
8.5 |
1.8% /
4.7% |
44.6% /
39.5% |
27.0 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
ARI |
27 – 17 W |
8.0 |
54.1% /
37.1% |
10.8% /
11.4% |
3.0% /
3.2% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
42.4% /
40.0% |
18.2% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
3.1 |
70 /
55 |
54.7% /
48.8% |
48.6% /
38.2% |
31.3% /
41.3% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
47.1% /
36.4% |
30.9 /
25.5 |
| 7 |
@NYJ |
37 – 17 W |
7.4 |
34.1% /
26.7% |
2.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.6 /
4.3 |
24.0% /
37.5% |
44.0% /
33.3% |
3.6 /
3.0 |
66 /
69 |
35.4% /
33.3% |
30.3% /
30.4% |
58.0% /
50.2% |
4.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.9% /
34.8% |
41.4 /
27.3 |
| 8 |
NO |
20 – 30 L |
-5.9 |
56.8% /
62.5% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
4.2% |
7.7 /
6.8 |
40.9% /
48.3% |
31.8% /
13.8% |
3.9 /
3.7 |
66 /
53 |
50.9% /
56.8% |
51.5% /
54.7% |
40.2% /
34.1% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
54.7% |
21.6 /
38.3 |
| 9 |
DET |
24 – 9 W |
8.8 |
56.5% /
39.1% |
4.3% /
21.7% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
3.1 |
43.5% /
40.0% |
26.1% /
16.0% |
5.6 /
2.7 |
46 /
71 |
51.4% /
41.2% |
50.0% /
39.4% |
41.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
3.0 |
2.2% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
35.2% |
32.6 /
21.7 |
| 11 |
@CHI |
20 – 25 L |
-8.4 |
54.2% /
50.0% |
4.2% /
3.1% |
4.3% /
6.5% |
5.1 /
5.0 |
28.6% /
45.2% |
50.0% /
21.4% |
1.6 /
3.6 |
62 /
74 |
49.0% /
51.8% |
48.4% /
47.3% |
9.3% /
20.6% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
22.6% /
56.8% |
34.1 /
26.9 |
| 12 |
GB |
24 – 17 W |
1.9 |
64.1% /
46.9% |
5.1% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
29.0% /
52.6% |
19.4% /
15.8% |
3.0 /
4.3 |
70 /
51 |
52.9% /
57.5% |
48.6% /
49.0% |
42.1% /
37.4% |
6.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
44.3% /
37.3% |
35.6 /
26.6 |
| 13 |
@NE |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
43.5% /
68.8% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
3.1% |
4.0 /
9.7 |
53.8% /
61.5% |
15.4% /
10.3% |
7.3 /
4.1 |
59 /
71 |
51.1% /
69.1% |
45.8% /
64.8% |
41.4% /
42.4% |
4.7 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
54.9% |
26.7 /
33.5 |
| 14 |
@SEA |
7 – 21 L |
-3.5 |
45.7% /
31.8% |
5.7% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
5.7 /
2.7 |
45.5% /
56.8% |
18.2% /
18.2% |
3.5 /
4.9 |
57 /
66 |
55.8% /
56.0% |
45.6% /
48.5% |
39.4% /
36.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
66.7% |
24.8 /
26.2 |
Miami Dolphins
@ 
Minnesota Vikings