Miami Dolphins @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Sep 26
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 487
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – LAS VEGAS (-3.5) over Miami

Jacoby Brissett will be under center this week for the Dolphins and his career 5.5 yards per pass play is higher than Tua Tagovailoa’s 5.4 yppp. Although, Brissett is more of a downfield QB and it could take Miami’s offense a little time to adjust. Brissett will benefit from having WR Will Fuller’s season debut. Deshaun Watson averaged 1.2 more yards per attempt with Fuller active compared to the games the WR missed in four seasons with the Texans. However, Fuller might struggle out of the gates across from Casey Hayward, who has allowed zero receptions on three targets and recorded two forced incompletions this year.

Raiders’ edge defender Maxx Crosby leads the NFL with 19 pressures and should dominate across from RT Jesse Davis, who ranks 55th out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

Jon Gruden has improved his play calling tremendously in his time with the Raiders, as he is calling more pass plays on early downs and now with a pre snap motion rate of 67% (2nd). Derek Carr is averaging 9.0 air yards per attempt (7th) compared to 6.7 in 2018, which ranked last among qualifying quarterbacks.

The Las Vegas offense loves facing man defenses like Miami because they can get the most out of Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller. The Dolphins are using man coverage on just over half of opponent dropbacks and Waller has a 37% target share versus man through two games. Waller led all tight ends with 522 receiving yards against man coverage a season ago. Carr might have to get the ball out of his hands quickly to Waller as rookie RT Alex Leatherwood will struggle to contain edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah (14th in pass rushing efficiency).

Our model favors the Raiders by 6.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Raiders


  • Pass Plays 39.5 36.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.9% 47.3%
  • Sack Rate 9.4% 1.5%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.5% 15.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 22.0% 44.1%
  • NYPP 5.3 6.2


  • Rush Plays 21.5 30.0
  • RB YPR 3.5 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 32.7% 20.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 40.8% 50.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.4% 47.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.5


  • All Snaps 61.0 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 45.9% 44.4%
  • Succ Rate 43.4% 48.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 27.5% 44.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 2.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.0 29.3
  • Run Ratio 36.4% 45.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -7.6 7.6
  • Points 8.5 25.5
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