Miami Dolphins vs

Jacksonville Jaguars

at London
Sun, Oct 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 251
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +3, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Miami (-3) vs Jacksonville (London)

The Dolphins have scored 17 or fewer points in all but one game this season but now it looks like starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be back under center in London. However, Tagovailoa won’t get much help from his supporting cast as it looks like wide receiver DeVante Parker (team high 242 receiving yards) will not be available for the second-straight game. Miami is already without WR Will Fuller (hand) and traded away WR Jakeem Grant earlier this month.

Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin had 10 receptions and two touchdowns last week, but Jaguars’ linebacker Myles Jack, who is good in coverage, is out and he’s worth 0.7 points.

Miami LT Austin Jackson ranks 55th out of 60 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle in this matchup. Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen had a 21% pressure rate last week and edge defender Dawuane Smoot ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency this year. The Dolphins have the worst ground game by our numbers and Jacksonville’s rush defense ranks 8th, so the Dolphins will need to rely on their sub-par aerial attack.

Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault has just as many yards (126) lining up on the outside this year as he does in the slot despite taking 71% of his snaps on the inside. WR DJ Chark is expected to miss the remainder of the season with a fractured ankle and Shenault lined up outside on 86% of his routes with Chark sidelined last week. I expect Shenault to be a viable weapon for Trevor Lawrence in his modified position especially with Dolphins CB Xavien Howard banged-up with shoulder and groin injuries.

Jacksonville’s ground game is 2 points better than average according to our metrics and Miami has the 27th-rated rush defense.

Our model favors the Dolphins by 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, but the Jaguars apply to a 47-14-2 ATS winless underdog situation. Pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars


  • Pass Plays 41.0 40.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 48.7%
  • Sack Rate 7.8% 3.9%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 1.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.0% 22.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.0% 46.8%
  • NYPP 5.5 7.4


  • Rush Plays 19.0 30.6
  • RB YPR 3.6 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 28.2% 25.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.1% 51.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.6% 50.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.4


  • All Snaps 60.0 70.6
  • Early Down Succ 51.1% 47.8%
  • Succ Rate 46.9% 49.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.7% 48.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 30.3
  • Run Ratio 31.5% 43.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -5.8 5.8
  • Points 15.8 30.8
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