Miami Dolphins @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Thu, Sep 24
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 301
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars -3, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Miami (+3 -115) over JACKSONVILLE

1-Star Best Bet – *Under 48

Jacksonville’s offense is prime for some regression in week 3. The Jaguars have scored touchdowns on 86% of their trips to the Redzone (2nd), compared to just 40% last season, and the Jags’ offense has also converted 63% of their third downs – no team last season converted more than half of third downs. Gardner Minshew ranks 3rd in completion percentage versus expectation, which is an indication to me that he’s gotten lucky on some throws into tight windows since I do not expect Minshew to finish the season in the top 5 in the category. Minshew has completed 4 of his 6 passes with 20+ air yards, which is unlikely to continue the rest of the way. In 2019, only Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo completed more than half of their deep passes and I’m confident that Minshew is not at that level.

Jacksonville’s center Brandon Linder has yet to concede a pressure after finishing 3rd in pass blocking efficiency in 2019 but he’ll be out for game and Minshew will likely be under pressure without Linder in the lineup.

Miami’s defense will probably be without top CB Byron Jones and we’ve adjusted 1.2 points for that loss and still think Jacksonville’s market offensive output is too high here. The Dolphins have been the 2nd-worst defense against the run in 2020 but Jacksonville’s ground game ranks just 25th so I doubt their rushing threat will be nearly as tough as New England and Buffalo’s was for Miami.

The Dolphins have gained 5.3 yppl in 2020, which is actually good considering they posted that average against two of the NFL’s best defenses (the Patriots and Bills).  Mike Gesicki’s 2.71 yards per route run ranks 3rd among tight ends and he should have a big games against a Jaguars teem that has the worst pass defense in the league by our metrics and have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

Despite their edge through the air I don’t think we’ll see Miami rely too heavily on Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing attack as new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has been able to keep Miami on schedule with the 4th-best rushing offense by our numbers. More running will lead to fewer plays and Miami and Jacksonville are both among the bottom 10 in average combined snaps in their games through 2 weeks, which is part of the reason for the play on the under.

Our model favors the Dolphins by 2.1 points with a predicted total of 43.9 points. A disagreement of that magnitude would normally qualify as a 2-Star play on the side, but this will be Brian Flores’ first time prepping on a short week as a head coach. First time Thursday night head coaches were 14-21 ATS last decade when not facing another first-time head coach. That’s not a particularly significant record but it’s enough to make the Dolphins only a 1-Star Best Bet. Miami is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 at -120 or +2.5 Even or better). The Under is also a 1-Star Best Bet at 47.5 points or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Jaguars


  • Pass Plays 40.5 28.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.8% 61.5%
  • Sack Rate 4.6% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 5.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 16.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 26.7% 44.6%
  • NYPP 6.0 9.1


  • Rush Plays 24.5 32.5
  • RB YPR 3.8 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 18.4% 14.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 57.7% 52.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 25.3% 53.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.0


  • All Snaps 65.0 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 56.2% 62.0%
  • Succ Rate 52.3% 58.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 26.5% 51.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 7.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 31.4
  • Run Ratio 38.6% 52.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 23.8 24.9
  • Game Control -4.9 4.9
  • Points 19.5 26.0
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