Game Analysis
Best Bet – 6 point Teaser – *Houston (-1.5) with Pittsburgh (-2)
HOUSTON (-7.5) over Miami
Brock Osweiler’s numbers look surprisingly solid this season, as he’s managed to average 7.5 yards per pass play, but it’s worth noting that 34% of his yards in his two starts have come after the catch, and now he’ll be without his two of his top receivers on Thursday. Albert Wilson, tied for 3rd among wide receivers with 11 avoided tackles, is out for the season with a hip injury, and Kenny Stills, 3rd on the team in targets, will be out for this game with a groin strain. DeVante Parker is also banged-up and recorded 0 catches on just 1 target in his first game back last week. Danny Amendola may be Osweiler’s only capable option remaining and he’ll have an unfavorable matchup lining up across from Kareem Jackson, who’s been filling in well the past few games for Aaron Colvin, conceding just 0.38 yards per cover snap from the slot since week 4, which ranks 6th among qualifying nickelbacks. Overall, we expect Miami’s offense to be nearly a point worse due to cluster injuries at wide receiver.
Deshaun Watson is back from his road trip to Jacksonville as the Texans were so nervous about his injured lung they didn’t want him flying on the team plane. Watson has managed to gain 6.8 yards per pass play (12th) despite his injury and an offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking efficiency. The offense should perform well in this game even with top receiver DeAndre Hopkins squaring off against Dolphins CB Minkah Fitzpatrick, whose 0.56 yards allowed per cover snap is tied for 4th-best in the league. Hopkins has shown that he can produce against elite defenders in recent weeks. Hopkins has averaged an impressive 9.8 yards per target the last 3 weeks while facing Byron Jones and Tre’Davious White, who both rank top 5 in yards allowed per cover snap, and perennial All-Pro Jalen Ramsey. I expect the star wideout to produce in this game too, having shown in the past he’s matchup-proof. Running back Lamar Miller broke out for his first 100-yard game of the season last week, but Houston’s rush offense still ranks 20th in our numbers and they will likely find it difficult against Miami’s 7th-rated rush defense. However, not being able to run means more passing and the Dolphins are vulnerable through the air (7.6 yards per pass play allowed).
The Dolphins have very few weapons remaining and Bill O’Brien will be intimately familiar with Brock Osweiler’s weaknesses. It’s also unlikely that Osweiller will continue to be as fortunate in the yards after catch category. Our model favors the Texans by 9.4 points but there is more value making them part of a teaser play rather than laying the -7.5.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.7
33.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
51.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
4.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.3%
43.8%
-
NYPP
7.5
8.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
31.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
25.0%
20.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.2%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.0%
45.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
53.9
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
48.0%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
46.8%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
45.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.7
31.0
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
48.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.9
25.2
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.1%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.1%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.2%
39.5%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.0
27.0
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
24.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.8%
36.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.2%
25.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
46.3%
41.7%
-
Succ Rate
45.2%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
35.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
30.5
-
Run Ratio
45.3%
44.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.1
24.8
-
Game Control
-0.2
0.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% / 36.8% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
7.1% / 7.9% |
7.7 / 5.8 |
53.3% / 44.8% |
26.7% / 17.2% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
59 / 67 |
66.7% / 41.2% |
54.2% / 40.3% |
44.3% / 17.0% |
5.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 43.3% |
35.5 / 29.2 |
2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% / 43.2% |
14.8% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
52.9% / 26.3% |
26.5% / 36.8% |
4.1 / 2.2 |
61 / 63 |
55.8% / 39.6% |
49.2% / 38.1% |
36.2% / 50.3% |
4.3 / 5.7 |
3.3% / 1.6% |
55.7% / 30.2% |
34.4 / 24.1 |
3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% / 57.1% |
4.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
13.3 / 7.7 |
20.0% / 55.9% |
33.3% / 14.7% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
40 / 76 |
43.3% / 62.1% |
37.5% / 56.6% |
62.8% / 32.6% |
9.4 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 44.7% |
30.6 / 19.7 |
4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 5.7% |
4.3 / 7.8 |
11.1% / 34.9% |
38.9% / 18.6% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
45 / 78 |
21.2% / 34.5% |
24.4% / 38.5% |
20.9% / 45.1% |
3.8 / 5.8 |
2.2% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 55.1% |
29.5 / 32.0 |
5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% / 68.2% |
13.6% / 9.1% |
10.5% / 5.0% |
7.7 / 10.4 |
45.5% / 29.6% |
13.6% / 25.9% |
5.8 / 3.9 |
44 / 49 |
48.9% / 45.7% |
61.4% / 46.9% |
25.3% / 52.9% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
2.3% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.1% |
25.5 / 22.9 |
6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% / 54.5% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
4.7% / 3.2% |
8.8 / 9.2 |
58.1% / 43.8% |
9.7% / 9.4% |
5.2 / 5.2 |
74 / 65 |
53.4% / 48.0% |
52.7% / 49.2% |
48.2% / 60.7% |
7.3 / 7.2 |
1.4% / 3.1% |
41.9% / 49.2% |
28.7 / 25.3 |
7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% / 60.9% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 9.1 |
47.4% / 54.1% |
26.3% / 21.6% |
5.6 / 6.8 |
54 / 60 |
46.5% / 66.0% |
48.1% / 56.7% |
40.4% / 60.8% |
6.0 / 7.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 61.7% |
25.2 / 23.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
4.3 / 6.5 |
45.7% / 38.7% |
25.7% / 9.7% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
72 / 72 |
43.1% / 47.4% |
37.5% / 44.4% |
37.4% / 38.0% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 2.8% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
35.4 / 25.4 |
2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% / 39.1% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.0 |
42.3% / 35.3% |
11.5% / 14.7% |
5.7 / 2.9 |
61 / 57 |
46.0% / 35.0% |
45.9% / 36.8% |
53.1% / 27.9% |
7.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 59.6% |
26.6 / 23.2 |
3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% / 60.6% |
7.3% / 12.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 32.1% |
36.8% / 25.0% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
60 / 61 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
50.0% / 47.5% |
53.4% / 41.3% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 22.2 |
4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% / 48.5% |
14.9% / 6.1% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.6% / 41.2% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
82 / 83 |
49.2% / 44.6% |
50.0% / 47.0% |
37.1% / 26.6% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
42.7% / 20.5% |
33.4 / 24.1 |
5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% / 65.0% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
3.0% / 11.1% |
11.0 / 9.7 |
32.3% / 36.7% |
32.3% / 30.0% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
65 / 50 |
53.3% / 43.2% |
56.9% / 48.0% |
30.1% / 52.9% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 60.0% |
27.9 / 30.8 |
6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% / 29.0% |
21.2% / 6.5% |
7.7% / 6.9% |
4.3 / 4.2 |
36.0% / 40.7% |
28.0% / 22.2% |
3.0 / 3.7 |
58 / 58 |
34.9% / 32.6% |
31.0% / 34.5% |
34.1% / 46.3% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
1.7% / 1.7% |
43.1% / 46.6% |
36.5 / 28.2 |
7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
12.6 |
36.0% / 45.7% |
4.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
5.2 / 4.1 |
51.3% / 31.8% |
12.8% / 27.3% |
3.7 / 3.2 |
64 / 68 |
47.7% / 41.7% |
45.3% / 41.2% |
21.2% / 13.1% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 2.9% |
60.9% / 32.4% |
36.3 / 20.0 |