Miami Dolphins @

Green Bay Packers

Thu, Nov 28
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 309
Odds: Green Bay Packers -3, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion-  Over (47) – Miami at GREEN BAY

Lean – GREEN BAY (-3)

  • Green Bay has an increased home-field advantage later in the season when hosting dome or warm weather opponents and Tua Tagovailoa bowed out of the playoff last season in the coldest Kansas City game of all time. However, Tagovailoa has gotten it done in the snow before, averaging 6.8 yppp in week 15 of 2022 in the snow at Buffalo, and I think the Dolphins will hold up their end of the bargain for this total.
  • Miami’s offense is averaging 3.02 points per drive since Tagovailoa returned in week 8 (2nd).
  • The Packers’ defense is surrendering 28% more yppp against 2 WR sets than lighter personnel and the Dolphins will get multiple tight ends on the field on Thanksgiving night. Tagovailoa has had success rates of 58%, 56%, and 50% versus base defenses in his last three games.
  • Miami TE Jonnu Smith is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup as Green Bay’s defense is surrendering a league-high 66% success rate to opposing tight ends.
  • The Packers are allowing 0.41 EPA/target to opposing running backs (25th) and they will struggle against the screen game to RB De’Von Achane, whose 49% success rate ranks 2nd.
  • Green Bay WR Romeo Doubs has a 60% success rate (11th) and he will likely be sidelined – but his loss is negated by Dolphins CB Kendall Fuller being unable to suit up.
  • I expect Jordan Love to have plenty of time to feature his remaining wide receivers. Packers RT Zach Tom has conceded only 1 sack (8th-fewest) and he will limit edge defender Chop Robinson, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.
  • Green Bay LG Elgton Jenkins has conceded only 11 pressures (6th-fewest) and he will contain interior defender Zach Sieler, who ranks 16th in pass-rushing efficiency.
  • Our model favors the Packers by 3.0 points, with a predicted total of 51.9 points, but I Lean with Green Bay on the basis of a 37-90-3 ATS situation that applies to Miami based on their 3 straight wins and covers.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 48 points or less.

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