Miami Dolphins @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Nov 22
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 475
Odds: Denver Broncos +4, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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Miami (-4) vs DENVER

Drew Lock has a 15% interception rate when opponents blitz him this season and the Dolphins rank among the top 5 in blitz usage rate. Edge defender Emmanuel Ogbah ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency but the Broncos will have RT Demar Dotson back in the lineup after he missed the last game due to a groin injury. Lock will have to get the ball out quickly on underneath routes against the blitz. Miami’s defense has excellent cornerbacks on the outside with Xavian Howard and Byron Jones, so I expect KJ Hamler (10 targets in two-straight weeks) to be featured out of the slot. Jerry Jeudy has 19 receptions of 15+ yards (4th) this season and he leads all WRs with 133 routes run the last three weeks, but he will likely take a backseat on Sunday facing Howard and Jones.

DT Shelby Harris ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be out for Denver’s defense again. However, it looks like both of the Broncos top cornerbacks will be in action to face a depleted Dolphins receiving corps. Bryce Callahan and AJ Bouye are combining to concede just 0.77 yards per cover snap while Denver’s other CBs are surrendering 1.44 yards per cover snap. Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense will likely have a difficult time moving the ball. Fellow rookie QB Justin Herbert had one of his worst games against Vic Fangio’s defense in week 8 and Herbert could suffer a similar fate.

Our model favors the Dolphins by 5.2 points with a predicted total of 47.7 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Broncos
MIA
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.9 39.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.5% 51.5%
  • Sack Rate 5.4% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.6% 17.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.3% 32.3%
  • NYPP 6.9 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.9 26.9
  • RB YPR 3.3 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 20.8% 14.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.6% 58.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.6% 52.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.9




Game

  • All Snaps 59.8 66.4
  • Early Down Succ 56.4% 58.3%
  • Succ Rate 52.2% 53.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 28.6% 41.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.4 27.2
  • Run Ratio 45.8% 41.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.5 25.1
  • Game Control 5.0 -5.0
 
  • Points 27.8 20.1
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