Game Analysis
CLEVELAND (-11) vs Miami
Lean – Miami Team Total Over 17 at -120 odds
The suspensions to edge defender Myles Garrett and interior defender Larry Ogunjobi combined with injuries to safety Morgan Burnett, nickelback Eric Murray, and edge defender Olivier Vernon means Cleveland’s defense will be down five usual starters on Sunday. The Browns pass rush will basically be non-existent as Garrett, Ogunjobi, Vernon, and Burnett have combined for 20 of Cleveland’s 30 sacks this season. Our metrics are valuing those cluster absences up front at about 3 points. Burnett also made an impact in the passing game as he surrendered just 26 yards on 5 targets last week and added an interception against the Steelers. Murray, meanwhile, is one of the better nickelbacks in the NFL allowing only 0.75 yards per cover snap before undergoing knee surgery. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging just 5.0 yards per pass play the last two weeks without top wide receiver Preston Williams, but I think the gunslinger will be able to turn it around against an opponent with replacement-level players at nearly half the starting spots.
Baker Mayfield finally has a dream matchup versus this depleted Dolphins secondary without their four best defenders to start the season. The Fins are now without Bobby McCain, Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Odell Beckham is struggling by his standards, gaining just 1.89 yards per route run (19th), but he’s faced the toughest set of opposing cornerbacks of any wide receiver by a wide margin and he is prime for a breakout game on Sunday. Jarvis Landry is averaging 1.95 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and will dominate on the inside across from terrible nickelback Jomal Wiltz. Kareem Hunt has 17 targets in his two games and he is gaining 2.00 yards per route run. Miami’s defense is surrendering 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (27th) and Hunt should be effective catching the ball out of the backfield.
The market is not properly accounting for all the players missing on Cleveland’s defense, particularly with the pass rush. The Browns have an excellent opportunity to score points in bunches on offense with the passing attack finally facing a soft secondary. Our model favors Cleveland by 8.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, and implies value on Miami. However, Miami’s defense is so much worse than what the Browns have faced this season on average (toughest slate of defenses in the league) and I feel the Browns could break out offensively this week, as they’ve been trending up despite facing tough defenses lately. I think the Miami team-total Over 17 is the best play here, although it’s just a lean laying -120 odds.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.4
32.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.6%
52.0%
-
Sack Rate
10.3%
3.9%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
25.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.7%
47.7%
-
NYPP
5.1
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.2
31.7
-
RB YPR
2.7
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
32.0%
18.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.0%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
16.2%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
2.9
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
60.6
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
41.8%
53.1%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
50.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.5%
45.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
30.0
-
Run Ratio
33.2%
49.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
30.4
-
Game Control
-7.2
7.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.5%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
8.7%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.5%
17.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.1%
44.1%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.8
26.6
-
RB YPR
5.0
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
24.1%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.4%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.6%
46.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
62.6
-
Early Down Succ
44.2%
48.2%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
52.5%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
28.9
-
Run Ratio
40.0%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.3
27.8
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
10 – 59 L |
-32.5 |
37.1% / 74.1% |
8.6% / 3.7% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 14.0 |
33.3% / 58.7% |
50.0% / 13.0% |
1.8 / 5.8 |
47 / 73 |
37.8% / 65.5% |
36.2% / 64.4% |
48.5% / 66.7% |
4.3 / 8.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
25.5% / 63.0% |
22.6 / 31.6 |
2 |
NE |
0 – 43 L |
-16.0 |
28.3% / 60.0% |
15.2% / 6.7% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 8.5 |
33.3% / 60.0% |
33.3% / 14.3% |
2.8 / 3.6 |
61 / 65 |
33.3% / 62.3% |
29.5% / 60.0% |
13.0% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
24.6% / 53.8% |
27.9 / 33.5 |
3 |
@DAL |
6 – 31 L |
-11.1 |
40.9% / 48.5% |
6.8% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
4.8 / 7.3 |
37.5% / 67.6% |
29.2% / 2.9% |
3.0 / 6.9 |
68 / 67 |
46.0% / 60.7% |
39.7% / 58.2% |
31.4% / 56.9% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
35.3% / 50.7% |
28.7 / 26.1 |
4 |
LAC |
10 – 30 L |
-6.4 |
48.3% / 71.9% |
17.2% / 3.1% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 9.7 |
55.6% / 39.4% |
22.2% / 21.2% |
4.0 / 2.4 |
47 / 65 |
52.8% / 57.1% |
51.1% / 55.4% |
34.3% / 23.1% |
5.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.3% / 50.8% |
25.0 / 31.8 |
6 |
WAS |
16 – 17 L |
-6.1 |
33.3% / 40.0% |
10.4% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 6.6 |
52.4% / 45.5% |
19.0% / 18.2% |
4.0 / 4.4 |
69 / 58 |
42.3% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 43.1% |
28.0% / 42.8% |
3.9 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.4% / 56.9% |
28.3 / 27.3 |
7 |
@BUF |
21 – 31 L |
-0.6 |
55.6% / 50.0% |
2.8% / 7.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
33.3% / 13.0% |
3.6 / 5.1 |
66 / 51 |
52.0% / 55.0% |
53.0% / 51.0% |
45.9% / 61.3% |
5.8 / 6.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 45.1% |
25.5 / 30.2 |
8 |
@PIT |
14 – 27 L |
3.2 |
39.5% / 36.8% |
10.5% / 5.3% |
5.9% / 2.8% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
36.8% / 48.3% |
10.5% / 24.1% |
3.2 / 5.4 |
57 / 67 |
41.3% / 41.5% |
38.6% / 41.8% |
0.0% / 51.8% |
4.0 / 5.9 |
3.5% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 43.3% |
33.5 / 31.3 |
9 |
NYJ |
26 – 18 W |
4.5 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 5.7 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
37.5% / 23.8% |
2.1 / 4.0 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
23.4% / 26.8% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 33.3% |
31.2 / 30.7 |
10 |
@IND |
16 – 12 W |
4.1 |
36.1% / 37.5% |
8.3% / 2.5% |
3.0% / 7.7% |
4.4 / 4.8 |
26.9% / 41.4% |
38.5% / 31.0% |
2.7 / 3.8 |
62 / 69 |
30.2% / 41.5% |
32.3% / 39.1% |
22.7% / 55.0% |
3.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.9% / 42.0% |
33.4 / 32.5 |
11 |
BUF |
20 – 37 L |
-10.6 |
36.5% / 51.5% |
13.5% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 7.8 |
30.8% / 38.2% |
46.2% / 20.6% |
1.8 / 4.9 |
65 / 67 |
38.3% / 47.1% |
35.4% / 44.8% |
38.0% / 41.5% |
4.7 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
20.0% / 50.7% |
28.2 / 29.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TEN |
13 – 43 L |
-7.1 |
39.5% / 35.7% |
11.6% / 14.3% |
7.9% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 7.7 |
45.0% / 50.0% |
5.0% / 21.4% |
5.1 / 4.4 |
63 / 56 |
49.0% / 50.0% |
41.3% / 42.9% |
47.4% / 67.8% |
5.5 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 50.0% |
22.6 / 34.4 |
2 |
@NYJ |
23 – 3 W |
12.5 |
34.2% / 25.7% |
7.9% / 11.4% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 4.8 |
28.6% / 41.7% |
38.1% / 37.5% |
3.3 / 3.9 |
59 / 59 |
33.3% / 39.5% |
32.2% / 32.2% |
74.4% / 42.4% |
6.4 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
35.6% / 40.7% |
33.6 / 18.0 |
3 |
LA |
13 – 20 L |
-1.5 |
38.5% / 47.5% |
7.7% / 5.0% |
2.8% / 5.3% |
4.5 / 6.4 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
25.0% / 16.7% |
4.0 / 3.8 |
63 / 64 |
40.0% / 51.0% |
38.1% / 48.4% |
44.1% / 24.1% |
4.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
38.1% / 37.5% |
33.1 / 26.4 |
4 |
@BAL |
40 – 25 W |
7.4 |
50.0% / 52.6% |
3.1% / 10.5% |
3.2% / 5.9% |
10.5 / 5.8 |
51.7% / 58.6% |
24.1% / 13.8% |
6.7 / 6.0 |
61 / 67 |
52.2% / 59.3% |
50.8% / 55.2% |
55.3% / 39.7% |
8.7 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
47.5% / 43.3% |
26.2 / 27.8 |
5 |
@SF |
3 – 31 L |
-18.3 |
25.0% / 41.9% |
14.3% / 6.5% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
2.8 / 5.5 |
33.3% / 37.5% |
22.2% / 20.0% |
5.7 / 6.9 |
46 / 71 |
34.3% / 40.4% |
28.3% / 39.4% |
71.1% / 52.0% |
3.9 / 6.3 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
39.1% / 56.3% |
26.1 / 34.0 |
6 |
SEA |
28 – 32 L |
3.3 |
45.9% / 61.1% |
0.0% / 8.3% |
8.1% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 7.9 |
50.0% / 52.6% |
20.8% / 15.8% |
6.5 / 4.5 |
61 / 74 |
48.0% / 61.0% |
47.5% / 56.8% |
48.5% / 46.9% |
6.7 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 51.4% |
36.0 / 31.8 |
8 |
@NE |
13 – 27 L |
-12.1 |
38.9% / 43.6% |
13.9% / 7.7% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.1 |
59.1% / 33.3% |
22.7% / 40.7% |
7.2 / 2.9 |
58 / 66 |
53.3% / 39.6% |
46.6% / 39.4% |
59.7% / 52.8% |
5.3 / 4.8 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 40.9% |
25.2 / 36.2 |
9 |
@DEN |
19 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
45.5% / 39.1% |
4.5% / 13.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 7.6 |
37.9% / 45.0% |
20.7% / 15.0% |
3.1 / 6.4 |
73 / 43 |
44.6% / 46.9% |
42.5% / 41.9% |
38.2% / 71.9% |
4.8 / 7.0 |
0.0% / 2.3% |
39.7% / 46.5% |
34.2 / 23.4 |
10 |
BUF |
19 – 16 W |
2.5 |
47.5% / 42.9% |
5.0% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 6.2 |
53.8% / 40.0% |
30.8% / 15.0% |
5.7 / 4.2 |
66 / 62 |
53.8% / 46.8% |
50.0% / 41.9% |
32.1% / 42.4% |
5.6 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 32.3% |
24.8 / 24.5 |
11 |
PIT |
21 – 7 W |
9.7 |
30.3% / 41.7% |
3.0% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
5.7 / 3.7 |
37.1% / 37.5% |
31.4% / 37.5% |
3.0 / 3.6 |
68 / 64 |
33.3% / 48.0% |
33.8% / 40.6% |
54.6% / 28.8% |
4.3 / 3.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.5% / 25.0% |
41.5 / 21.8 |