Miami Dolphins @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 251
Odds: Cleveland Browns -11, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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CLEVELAND (-11) vs Miami

Lean – Miami Team Total Over 17 at -120 odds

The suspensions to edge defender Myles Garrett and interior defender Larry Ogunjobi combined with injuries to safety Morgan Burnett, nickelback Eric Murray, and edge defender Olivier Vernon means Cleveland’s defense will be down five usual starters on Sunday. The Browns pass rush will basically be non-existent as Garrett, Ogunjobi, Vernon, and Burnett have combined for 20 of Cleveland’s 30 sacks this season. Our metrics are valuing those cluster absences up front at about 3 points. Burnett also made an impact in the passing game as he surrendered just 26 yards on 5 targets last week and added an interception against the Steelers. Murray, meanwhile, is one of the better nickelbacks in the NFL allowing only 0.75 yards per cover snap before undergoing knee surgery. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging just 5.0 yards per pass play the last two weeks without top wide receiver Preston Williams, but I think the gunslinger will be able to turn it around against an opponent with replacement-level players at nearly half the starting spots.

Baker Mayfield finally has a dream matchup versus this depleted Dolphins secondary without their four best defenders to start the season. The Fins are now without Bobby McCain, Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Odell Beckham is struggling by his standards, gaining just 1.89 yards per route run (19th), but he’s faced the toughest set of opposing cornerbacks of any wide receiver by a wide margin and he is prime for a breakout game on Sunday. Jarvis Landry is averaging 1.95 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and will dominate on the inside across from terrible nickelback Jomal Wiltz. Kareem Hunt has 17 targets in his two games and he is gaining 2.00 yards per route run. Miami’s defense is surrendering 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (27th) and Hunt should be effective catching the ball out of the backfield.

The market is not properly accounting for all the players missing on Cleveland’s defense, particularly with the pass rush. The Browns have an excellent opportunity to score points in bunches on offense with the passing attack finally facing a soft secondary. Our model favors Cleveland by 8.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, and implies value on Miami. However, Miami’s defense is so much worse than what the Browns have faced this season on average (toughest slate of defenses in the league) and I feel the Browns could break out offensively this week, as they’ve been trending up despite facing tough defenses lately. I think the Miami team-total Over 17 is the best play here, although it’s just a lean laying -120 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Dolphins
  • Browns


  • Pass Plays 40.4 32.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.6% 52.0%
  • Sack Rate 10.3% 3.9%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 1.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 25.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.7% 47.7%
  • NYPP 5.1 7.7


  • Rush Plays 20.2 31.7
  • RB YPR 2.7 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 32.0% 18.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.0% 49.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 16.2% 40.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 2.9 4.6


  • All Snaps 60.6 64.5
  • Early Down Succ 41.8% 53.1%
  • Succ Rate 39.9% 50.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 28.5% 45.4%
  • Yards Per Play 4.3 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 30.0
  • Run Ratio 33.2% 49.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 30.4
  • Game Control -7.2 7.2
  • Points 13.9 30.5
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