Game Analysis

Note: This play was released to subscribers early in the week when Miami was an underdog. Miami is now favored by 1 and the Dolphins would be a Lean at -1.

1-Star Best Bet – *Miami (+1.5) over CAROLINA

• We continue to think Miami is underrated and the Dolphins shouldn’t be underdogs here to a Panthers team with a decimated supporting cast for Bryce Young.
• Carolina starting RG Robert Hunt is out and the Panthers lost backup guard Chandler Zavala last week. It will likely be third string guard Brady Christensen alongside backup center Cade Mays because starting center Austin Corbett is also sidelined. Miami interior defender Zach Sieler ranked 15th in pass rushing efficiency last season, and he will wreak havoc against Carolina’s depleted interior offensive line.
• Carolina traded WR Adam Thielen to the Vikings just before the season because they were confident in WR Jalen Coker. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Coker injured his quad the very next day and has been out since. Carolina backup wide receiver David Moore was just placed on IR with an elbow injury, and the Panthers are also without starting TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, who is out due to a high ankle sprain. Sanders was averaging 0.41 EPA/target (6th).
• Bryce Young averaged only 3.9 yppp last week with this dismal supporting cast.
• We are adjusting Miami’s offense down a point due to the loss of WR Tyreek Hill. We haven’t made a positive adjustment yet, but Darren Waller’s debut was encouraging last week, as the veteran tight end averaged 2.70 yards per route run (5th) and caught 2 touchdowns.
• Tua Tagovailoa averaged 10.6 yppp targeting in-breaking routes against the Jets and he has a favorable matchup this week to continue doing so as Carolina’s defense is allowing a 24% middle throw rate (3rd-highest).
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 2.4 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points.

Miami is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more (just a Lean at the current line of -1).