Miami Dolphins @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Nov 3
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Buffalo Bills -6, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (49) – BUFFALO (-6) vs Miami

  • The Dolphins were not messing around in Tua Tagovailoa’s first game back from concussion. They wanted to protect the franchise quarterback at all costs. Tagovailoa averaged the fastest time to throw of any quarterback last week (2.22 seconds) and he only had a 15% pressure rate (2nd-lowest).
  • Miami’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is 44% more than when blitzed (2nd) and the Dolphins’ offensive line has a favorable matchup against a Bills defense with an 80% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
  • Buffalo edge rusher Von Miller will be back from suspension, and he is averaging 3.3 pressures per game. However, Miller should be contained by LT Terron Armstead, who ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency.
  • The Bills defense has the 3rd-highest Cover 4 rate which could take away some of Miami’s deep passing attack. The Dolphins yppp against Cover 4 is only 77% of the yppp versus other coverages (26th).
  • Miami’s offense has a 74% motion rate (2nd-highest) and I think they will feature All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill on the move before the snap against a Bills defense surrendering 11% more yppp against motion than no motion (27th).
  • Buffalo’s offense had a 62% neutral pass play rate last week despite the rain and wind in Seattle as it looks like the Bills want to go more pass-heavy after the addition of WR Amari Cooper.
  • Dolphins’ interior defender Zach Sieler leads Miami’s defense with 18 pressures but he is likely out with fractured orbital bone.
  • Our model makes Buffalo a 9.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 53.0 points.
  • I used Miami in my spread pool based on some strong technical indicators, including ga 237-120-10 ATS contrary indicator. Also, Buffalo is due for a letdown after two dominating performances on both sides of the ball. Teams that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games are just 12-46 ATS in their next game since 1980. It’s rare for a team to play that well in consecutive games on offense and defense and even more rare to do so a 3rd consecutive game.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 50 or less.

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