Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (54.5) – Miami at Buffalo

Lean – BUFFALO (-2.5 -120) over Miami

· The Dolphins set an NFL record with 726 yards of offense last week and this total has soared too far up based on the enthusiasm for Miami’s offense.

· You can comfortably rate both the Dolphins and Bills as top 3 offenses in the NFL and the total would still be too high. Bills’ DC Vic Fangio and HC Sean McDermott are going to do everything in their power to limit explosive plays on Sunday.

· Miami’s offense leads the NFL with an 83% pre-snap motion rate. Mike McDaniel uses motion to give Tua Tagovailoa a hint about the coverage and to mess with the defense’s rules. The Dolphins’ scheme uniqueness will not trick Buffalo’s defense as much as it does others due to familiarity. This will be the fourth game the Bills have gone against McDaniel’s offense.

· All 9 of Tyreek Hill’s receptions last week came on in-breaking routes. Buffalo’s defense simply will not let this happen with two former All-Pro safeties and nickelback Taron Johnson, who is being targeted just once in every 16.8 cover snaps in the slot and allowing less separation than any CB in the NFL.

· Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White ranks 13th in PFF coverage grade and he will limit Jaylen Waddle, who is returning from a concussion.

· Buffalo’s defense had a 69% pressure rate on Sam Howell last week.  Ed Oliver leads all interior defenders in pass-rushing efficiency, and he has a favorable matchup. Miami center Connor Williams is likely out. Williams was conceding a 1% pressure rate while backup Liam Eichenberg surrendered a 7% pressure rate last season.

· The Dolphins’ defense is allowing a 49% rush success rate (30th) and Vic Fangio isn’t going to let Josh Allen hit deep shots. Miami’s defense will present a ton of light boxes and the Bills will lean on their solid ground game averaging 0.04 EPA/rush (4th).

· Our model projects 5 fewer snaps than average for this game and the clock will keep ticking with both offenses forced into long drives.

· Our model makes Buffalo a 1.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 49.7 points, and teams that scored more than 50 points in their previous game go under at a 59% rate (59-41-1 Under since 1980), including 25-13 Under if their opponent is allowing an average of less than 20 points per game, as is the case here. Teams that are coming off a game in which they scored 60 points or more are just 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS, so it’s unlikely that Miami’s offensive explosion will carry over to this week.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or more (Strong Opinion Under 53.5) and I’ll lean with Buffalo on the basis of the good matchups.