Game Analysis

Strong Opinion-  First Half Over (21.5) – Miami at BUFFALO

Lean – Miami (+7)

· This handicap is truly about quantifying the weather because otherwise the total has no business being this low. The over-under was 54.5 when these teams met in week 2.

· Buffalo and Miami’s offense are averaging 27.2 (4th) and 24.3 (8th) points per game, respectively.

· This game has three wide receivers ranked inside the top 10 of EPA/target – Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Jaylen Waddle.

· Our model would have this total at 51 in a neutral scoring environment. However, lake effect snow storms are expected in Orchard Park again this week. The 11 mph winds and snow are not bad enough to move this game to Detroit like we saw three weeks ago, but our numbers have the conditions about 3.5 points worse than average on Saturday night.

· There are also some favorable pass rushing matchups for both defenses. Dolphins edge defender Jaelan Phillips has 55 pressures (8th) and he will line up across from RT Spencer Brown, who is ranked 52nd out of 56 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Bills edge defender Gregory Rousseau has a higher pass rushing efficiency than even Von Miller (out again on Saturday) this season and he will go against right tackle Brandon Shell, who is surrendering an 8% pressure rate.

· Tua Tagovailoa was averaging 7 completions inside the numbers with at least 10+ yards downfield since returning from his concussion until last week when the Chargers limited him to two such passes. Tagovailoa has struggled in 3 cold weather games as a pro but he also didn’t have this current set of great receivers and an innovative coach that will put him in the best position to succeed in these conditions.

· Los Angeles was extremely physical with Miami’s WRs at the line of scrimmage which I expect Buffalo’s defense to mimic. However, Mike McDaniel is one of the best offensive schemers in the NFL by our metrics and I think he will have some great counter punches this week.

· It looks like the snow could be at its lightest at the start of the game and these offenses together average 0.126 more expected points added per play in the first half than the second halves.

· Our model favors the Bills by 5.1 with a predicted total of 47.5 and I prefer the first-half over.

Strong Opinion on First-Half Over (21.5) at 22.5 or less.