Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (-3) vs LA Rams

Player Prop Strong Opinion

Van Jefferson (Rams) Over 36 Receiving Yards at 38 or less

The Buccaneers are the only defense in the league blitzing on more than 40% of opponents dropbacks and they rank second in pressure rate (28.6%). Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford crushed the blitz this season averaging 9.0 yards per attempt (3rd). Stafford saw a season-high 50% blitz rate last week and beat it for 7/9 for 148 yards and a touchdown. Stafford had 67% of his yards come between the numbers against the Cardinals and WR Cooper Kupp has dominated the inside all year, averaging and NFL best 3.43 yards per route run in the slot. Tampa Bay Defensive Coordinator Todd Bowles put safety Antoine Winfield at nickelback last week and he has conceded just 16 yards in the slot on 18 coverage snaps, which compares favorably to normal starters Sean Murphy-Bunting and Ross Cockrell, who are combining to allow 1.47 yards per slot cover snap. Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean conceded just 0.69 yards per cover snap this season and he will shut down Odell Beckham.

WR Mike Evans is crucial to Tampa Bay’s offense without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. Evans had 117 yards and a score versus the Eagles, but I think it will be much tougher sledding for the Buccaneers top wide receiver on Sunday. The Rams could shadow Evans with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

The entirety of Tampa Bay’s interior offensive line surrendered less than a 10% pressure rate this season and will do as good of a job as any against Aaron Donald, who had 12.5 sacks (7th). Buccaneers starting right tackle Tristan Wirfs (worth 0.8 points) lead the NFL in pass blocking efficiency, but he is unlikely to suit up this week. Backup RT Josh Wells will have a hard time protecting Tom Brady against Rams edge defenders Von Miller and Leonard Floyd, who each had 58 pressures in the regular season (15th). I had expected safety Rapp to be back from his concussion but he is out again this week, which hurts the defense.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 4.3 points with a predicted total of 48.7 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Buccaneers

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.50 38.65
Succ Pass Plays 52.5% 46.4%
Sack Rate 4.9% 7.3%
Int Rate 2.9% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 20.5% 16.8%
Big Pass Yards 45.7% 34.9%
NYPP 7.42 5.91

Rush

Rush Plays 25.39 25.82
RB YPR 4.01 3.76
Stuff Rate 24.7% 23.9%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 50.1%
Big Rush Yards 38.9% 39.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.99 3.90

Game

All Snaps 61.89 64.47
Early Down Succ 53.9% 51.8%
Succ Rate 51.2% 47.9%
Big Yards Rate 43.9% 36.0%
Yards Per Play 6.01 5.10
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.59 28.83
Run Ratio 41.0% 40.1%
Starting Field Pos 28.50 27.08
Game Control 3.54 -3.54

Points 27.28 21.28

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	34 – 14 W	10.93	55.6% / 55.8%	3.7% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	11.56 / 4.37	47.8% / 61.5%	34.8% / 26.9%	3.22 / 5.15	50 / 69	51.4% / 66.0%	52.0% / 58.0%	44.3% / 18.6%	7.72 / 4.67	0.0% / 1.4%	46.0% / 37.7%	32.44 / 28.38
2	@IND	27 – 24 W	3.60	58.1% / 46.2%	3.2% / 7.7%	3.3% / 5.6%	8.71 / 6.28	50.0% / 53.8%	21.4% / 23.1%	3.61 / 4.19	59 / 65	59.2% / 51.9%	54.2% / 49.2%	40.6% / 36.2%	6.29 / 5.45	1.7% / 0.0%	47.5% / 40.0%	24.40 / 29.70
3	TB	34 – 24 W	8.05	56.4% / 55.2%	2.6% / 5.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.49 / 7.09	45.8% / 46.2%	29.2% / 23.1%	3.17 / 2.69	63 / 71	48.9% / 58.5%	52.4% / 53.5%	53.9% / 32.8%	6.46 / 6.28	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 18.3%	33.80 / 21.00
4	ARZ	20 – 37 L	-10.09	56.1% / 62.9%	0.0% / 8.6%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.83 / 7.11	69.6% / 57.5%	17.4% / 27.5%	5.26 / 5.40	64 / 75	63.5% / 60.7%	60.9% / 60.0%	29.4% / 49.4%	6.27 / 6.20	1.6% / 0.0%	35.9% / 53.3%	28.50 / 25.50
5	@SEA	26 – 17 W	1.13	55.3% / 51.4%	2.6% / 5.7%	2.7% / 6.1%	9.42 / 7.49	44.8% / 56.0%	37.9% / 12.0%	4.07 / 3.68	67 / 60	56.4% / 58.3%	50.7% / 53.3%	57.8% / 44.8%	7.10 / 5.90	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 41.7%	25.42 / 23.58
6	@NYG	38 – 11 W	15.52	62.5% / 36.4%	6.3% / 7.3%	6.7% / 5.9%	7.31 / 3.65	52.9% / 38.9%	20.6% / 27.8%	3.85 / 3.33	66 / 73	64.2% / 41.2%	57.6% / 37.0%	34.8% / 4.6%	5.53 / 3.58	0.0% / 1.4%	51.5% / 24.7%	40.23 / 22.83
7	DET	28 – 19 W	-1.35	54.8% / 46.2%	2.4% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.79 / 7.13	36.8% / 42.9%	31.6% / 25.0%	2.47 / 4.89	61 / 67	44.7% / 45.8%	49.2% / 44.8%	44.4% / 52.1%	6.13 / 6.19	0.0% / 0.0%	31.1% / 41.8%	23.22 / 29.89
8	@HST	38 – 22 W	18.65	54.3% / 45.5%	2.9% / 11.4%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.63 / 6.34	61.3% / 50.0%	12.9% / 35.7%	5.32 / 3.14	66 / 58	64.2% / 52.3%	57.6% / 46.6%	54.3% / 46.0%	7.08 / 5.57	0.0% / 0.0%	47.0% / 24.1%	30.55 / 26.69
9	TEN	16 – 28 L	-9.58	43.4% / 40.0%	9.4% / 10.0%	4.2% / 3.7%	4.77 / 4.17	52.4% / 53.8%	19.0% / 19.2%	4.48 / 2.65	74 / 56	52.8% / 51.3%	45.9% / 46.4%	27.1% / 11.8%	4.69 / 3.46	0.0% / 0.0%	28.4% / 46.4%	20.91 / 36.55
10	@SF	7 – 31 L	-12.03	43.2% / 55.0%	4.5% / 5.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.14 / 8.95	60.0% / 50.0%	10.0% / 29.5%	5.20 / 3.55	54 / 64	53.7% / 50.0%	46.3% / 51.6%	36.4% / 32.8%	5.15 / 5.23	0.0% / 0.0%	18.5% / 68.8%	24.40 / 25.56
12	@GB	28 – 36 L	-6.32	46.3% / 41.3%	4.9% / 2.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.95 / 6.67	50.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 21.9%	3.40 / 2.88	61 / 78	54.3% / 45.6%	47.5% / 44.9%	41.9% / 38.1%	5.79 / 5.12	1.6% / 2.6%	32.8% / 41.0%	24.71 / 39.54
13	JAX	37 – 7 W	14.25	59.0% / 40.0%	2.6% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.44 / 4.53	59.3% / 28.0%	18.5% / 40.0%	4.74 / 2.44	66 / 55	63.5% / 31.7%	59.1% / 34.5%	42.8% / 24.8%	6.33 / 3.58	0.0% / 3.6%	40.9% / 45.5%	28.40 / 27.09
14	@ARZ	30 – 23 W	5.20	54.5% / 0.0%	9.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.09 / 0.00	42.9% / 0.0%	33.3% / 0.0%	4.24 / 0.00	54 / 0	51.2% / 0.0%	50.0% / 0.0%	56.1% / 0.0%	6.59 / 0.00	0.0% / 0.0%	38.9% / 0.0%	33.11 / 26.91
15	SEA	20 – 10 W	2.19	42.4% / 35.3%	12.1% / 8.8%	3.4% / 3.2%	6.33 / 3.94	37.9% / 57.9%	37.9% / 15.8%	4.24 / 4.21	62 / 53	40.4% / 51.3%	40.3% / 43.4%	55.3% / 29.2%	5.35 / 4.04	0.0% / 0.0%	46.8% / 35.8%	24.73 / 28.60
16	@MIN	30 – 23 W	7.00	45.9% / 51.2%	0.0% / 7.3%	8.1% / 2.6%	5.32 / 7.20	63.6% / 40.9%	18.2% / 36.4%	4.82 / 3.00	70 / 63	54.5% / 57.4%	54.3% / 47.6%	28.4% / 37.5%	5.09 / 5.73	0.0% / 0.0%	47.1% / 34.9%	25.18 / 35.17
17	@BLT	20 – 19 W	-4.76	58.3% / 43.2%	2.8% / 13.5%	5.7% / 3.1%	8.33 / 4.38	55.0% / 56.3%	15.0% / 9.4%	3.65 / 5.16	56 / 69	62.2% / 56.3%	57.1% / 49.3%	33.2% / 33.1%	6.66 / 4.74	1.8% / 1.4%	35.7% / 46.4%	27.70 / 21.44
18	SF	24 – 27 L	5.31	45.9% / 50.0%	13.5% / 8.3%	6.3% / 6.1%	5.43 / 8.72	25.9% / 54.8%	37.0% / 19.4%	2.37 / 4.35	64 / 67	29.5% / 51.0%	37.5% / 52.2%	43.7% / 55.8%	4.14 / 6.70	0.0% / 0.0%	42.2% / 46.3%	28.45 / 21.91
19	ARZ	34 – 11 W	15.94	68.4% / 34.3%	5.3% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	12.37 / 3.37	36.8% / 38.9%	23.7% / 16.7%	3.68 / 3.39	57 / 53	47.7% / 43.9%	47.4% / 35.8%	58.4% / 22.7%	6.58 / 3.38	0.0% / 0.0%	66.7% / 34.0%	36.90 / 17.17

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	31 – 29 W	3.19	56.0% / 57.6%	0.0% / 1.7%	4.0% / 1.7%	7.58 / 6.63	64.3% / 38.9%	7.1% / 27.8%	3.71 / 3.33	64 / 77	60.4% / 54.2%	57.8% / 53.2%	38.5% / 32.0%	6.73 / 5.86	3.1% / 0.0%	21.9% / 23.4%	32.69 / 26.92
2	ATL	48 – 25 W	9.88	48.7% / 46.9%	7.7% / 2.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	6.64 / 5.98	57.1% / 30.0%	28.6% / 40.0%	3.90 / 2.75	60 / 69	57.8% / 44.0%	51.7% / 42.0%	44.1% / 35.5%	5.68 / 5.04	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 29.0%	39.75 / 27.29
3	@LA	24 – 34 L	-8.05	55.2% / 56.4%	5.2% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.09 / 8.49	46.2% / 45.8%	23.1% / 29.2%	2.69 / 3.17	71 / 63	58.5% / 48.9%	53.5% / 52.4%	32.8% / 53.9%	6.28 / 6.46	0.0% / 0.0%	18.3% / 38.1%	21.00 / 33.80
4	@NE	19 – 17 W	0.20	40.9% / 54.3%	2.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.93 / 6.41	53.3% / 25.0%	23.3% / 75.0%	3.97 / -0.13	74 / 54	46.3% / 59.5%	45.9% / 50.0%	42.3% / 22.6%	5.14 / 5.44	0.0% / 1.9%	40.5% / 14.8%	25.64 / 29.64
5	MIA	45 – 17 W	9.98	68.1% / 54.8%	4.3% / 7.1%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.30 / 6.24	64.0% / 44.4%	24.0% / 22.2%	4.84 / 4.33	72 / 51	66.7% / 59.5%	66.7% / 52.9%	39.6% / 50.0%	7.75 / 5.90	0.0% / 2.0%	34.7% / 17.6%	29.30 / 23.67
6	@PHI	28 – 22 W	9.08	54.8% / 32.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	2.4% / 3.8%	7.07 / 4.04	51.6% / 52.6%	29.0% / 31.6%	3.29 / 5.26	73 / 47	54.2% / 44.1%	53.4% / 40.4%	23.1% / 60.9%	5.47 / 4.53	0.0% / 0.0%	42.5% / 40.4%	28.55 / 24.60
7	CHI	38 – 3 W	23.96	43.6% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 9.4%	5.79 / 4.67	67.7% / 51.7%	12.9% / 31.0%	5.87 / 4.93	70 / 65	58.9% / 60.8%	54.3% / 50.8%	51.2% / 41.0%	5.83 / 4.78	1.4% / 3.1%	44.3% / 44.6%	43.58 / 23.69
8	@NO	27 – 36 L	-2.59	50.0% / 37.5%	6.8% / 2.5%	4.9% / 0.0%	7.95 / 5.23	50.0% / 34.4%	28.6% / 12.5%	5.07 / 4.75	58 / 72	48.8% / 35.2%	50.0% / 36.1%	55.6% / 35.1%	7.26 / 5.01	1.7% / 0.0%	24.1% / 44.4%	26.08 / 34.00
10	@WAS	19 – 29 L	-6.90	55.9% / 48.6%	0.0% / 13.5%	5.9% / 0.0%	6.47 / 6.11	61.5% / 44.1%	7.7% / 20.6%	4.08 / 2.76	47 / 71	60.0% / 44.4%	57.4% / 46.5%	33.3% / 28.6%	5.81 / 4.51	0.0% / 1.4%	27.7% / 47.9%	33.50 / 32.22
11	NYG	30 – 10 W	9.65	55.1% / 31.7%	2.0% / 4.9%	2.1% / 5.1%	6.29 / 3.63	48.1% / 53.8%	22.2% / 23.1%	3.48 / 5.08	76 / 54	53.2% / 42.9%	52.6% / 37.0%	18.4% / 33.0%	5.29 / 3.98	0.0% / 1.9%	35.5% / 24.1%	32.09 / 30.91
12	@IND	38 – 31 W	-1.88	50.0% / 51.1%	5.6% / 6.4%	2.9% / 4.5%	6.03 / 6.06	77.8% / 55.0%	7.4% / 20.0%	5.26 / 5.35	63 / 67	69.8% / 54.9%	61.9% / 52.2%	38.0% / 42.4%	5.70 / 5.85	1.6% / 4.5%	42.9% / 29.9%	33.15 / 33.50
13	@ATL	30 – 17 W	5.84	56.9% / 52.2%	0.0% / 10.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	7.22 / 5.63	41.2% / 47.8%	17.6% / 34.8%	3.35 / 5.26	68 / 69	50.0% / 50.0%	52.9% / 50.7%	29.2% / 34.9%	6.25 / 5.51	0.0% / 1.4%	25.0% / 33.3%	21.70 / 23.33
14	BUF	33 – 27 W	10.94	47.9% / 42.1%	4.2% / 5.3%	0.0% / 1.9%	7.31 / 5.14	55.2% / 73.7%	24.1% / 15.8%	4.72 / 9.11	77 / 76	52.5% / 59.6%	50.6% / 50.0%	45.0% / 49.7%	6.34 / 6.13	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 25.0%	23.71 / 25.54
15	NO	0 – 9 L	-5.15	36.5% / 31.0%	7.7% / 6.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	3.54 / 5.21	42.9% / 32.3%	14.3% / 38.7%	5.62 / 1.97	73 / 60	41.5% / 37.2%	38.4% / 31.7%	24.7% / 34.0%	4.14 / 3.53	1.4% / 0.0%	28.8% / 51.7%	21.85 / 28.62
16	@CAR	32 – 6 W	11.67	51.6% / 30.8%	0.0% / 13.5%	0.0% / 2.2%	7.48 / 3.96	51.6% / 46.7%	32.3% / 33.3%	5.13 / 4.47	62 / 67	52.1% / 36.4%	51.6% / 34.3%	55.0% / 33.6%	6.31 / 4.07	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 22.4%	33.00 / 25.82
17	@NYJ	28 – 24 W	-5.65	56.9% / 47.1%	2.0% / 2.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	7.94 / 6.59	57.1% / 46.2%	23.8% / 34.6%	2.95 / 5.77	72 / 60	55.4% / 45.8%	56.9% / 46.7%	51.1% / 53.6%	6.49 / 6.23	0.0% / 1.7%	29.2% / 43.3%	24.11 / 26.40
18	CAR	41 – 17 W	3.78	60.0% / 40.0%	2.5% / 4.4%	0.0% / 2.3%	8.10 / 4.60	50.0% / 46.2%	30.0% / 30.8%	4.25 / 4.23	60 / 71	61.7% / 49.0%	56.7% / 42.3%	52.1% / 23.4%	6.82 / 4.46	0.0% / 1.4%	33.3% / 36.6%	36.92 / 30.58
19	PHI	31 – 15 W	16.65	58.5% / 28.9%	9.8% / 4.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	5.93 / 5.42	46.7% / 52.9%	16.7% / 29.4%	3.43 / 5.59	71 / 62	59.6% / 36.4%	53.5% / 35.5%	20.1% / 49.0%	4.87 / 5.47	0.0% / 1.6%	42.3% / 27.4%	32.08 / 23.23

Los Angeles Rams @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Jan 23

12:00 PM Pacific

Game Analysis