Los Angeles Rams @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mon, Nov 23
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 1473
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – TAMPA BAY (-4) over LA Rams

Jared Goff has completed only 39% of his passes under pressure this season and he could be in trouble going forward without LT Andrew Whitworth, who leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency. However, this matchup is not the worst-case scenario¬†for the first game without the two-time All-Pro left tackle. Edge defender Shaquil Barrett (7th in pass rushing efficiency) takes 89% of his pass rushing snaps from the right side of the offense (opposite of where Whitworth played). Interior defender William Gholston ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency but Rams LG David Edwards is conceding less than a pressure per game so Goff should still have time in the pocket on Monday night, even without Whitworth. Sean Murphy-Bunting ranks 23rd out of 25 qualifying nickelbacks in surrendering 1.60 yards per slot cover snap and he has no chance against Cooper Kupp. Tampa Bay’s defense would be best served using Carlton Davis in shadow coverage like they have the past two games against Michael Thomas and DJ Moore, but I doubt they will against¬†Kupp because Davis very rarely lines up on the inside. The Rams will need to utilize the passing attack as their 2nd-rated ground game will likely be neutralized by a Buccaneers rush defense ranked 5th.

Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski caught 15 of their 17 targets last week and having numerous receiving threats will be important in this matchup. Jalen Ramsey is conceding only 0.56 yards per cover snap (2nd) but the Pro Bowl CB can only shut down one of the Buccaneers’ receivers on a given play. I’m thinking it will be Mike Evans most of the time, which means Brown, Godwin, and Gronkowski could shine again. LG Ali Marpet ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency but he has missed the last two games with a concussion and Tom Brady will need him back to slow down Aaron Donald on the interior (check his status).

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 4.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.7 points, and the Bucs apply to a 58-18-1 ATS Monday night home team situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • Buccaneers


  • Pass Plays 37.1 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.8% 45.5%
  • Sack Rate 3.9% 8.7%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 14.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.7% 26.2%
  • NYPP 7.3 5.2


  • Rush Plays 31.1 23.8
  • RB YPR 4.4 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 20.0% 15.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.7% 49.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.2% 27.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.0


  • All Snaps 68.2 62.0
  • Early Down Succ 56.4% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 53.3% 46.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.1% 27.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 4.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.5
  • Run Ratio 45.8% 38.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.9 27.1
  • Game Control 1.4 -1.4
  • Points 24.0 18.7
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