Game Analysis

Note: This play was released on Monday morning when the line was +3 -120 odds but the Rams are still a Best Bet at +2.5

1-Star Best Bet – *LA Rams (+3 -120) over SEATTLE

Strong Opinion – RB Kenneth Walker (Sea) Under 108.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) to 104.5

Some books may not have Rushing + Receiving yards (i.e. Total yards from scrimmage) and that Walker under play can be split between Rushing yards Under and Receiving yards Under if that’s the case for you.

• Seattle’s defense plays nickel defense on 77% of its snaps (2nd-highest), and Los Angeles is one of the few offenses in the NFL willing to go heavy enough to punish them.
• The Rams used 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) at a 61.4% rate in week 16 against the Seahawks and averaged 6.6 yards per play. Los Angeles used 13 personnel at 5.5x the league average rate this season and more than double Pittsburgh’s offense with the 2nd-highest usage.
• Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald’s core philosophy is to invite the run and limit explosives with two-high safety structures. He matched the heavy personnel with a base defense at only a 9.1% rate in week 16, as Macdonald refuses to oppose Sean McVay’s three tight ends with more linebackers because does not want to surrender deep play-action passes. McVay is patient with the ground game and will throw to the tight ends underneath in a favorable matchup. The Seahawks defense surrendered 0.51 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th).
• Los Angeles was without WR Davante Adams in Seattle five weeks ago, and they lost unsung warrior RG Kevin Dotson after just 23% of snaps in that game. The Rams are averaging 0.7 yards per carry more with Dotson on the field compared to off this year.
• The Rams controlled the game with the 13 personnel, even without Dotson, scoring 30 points in regulation and extending to a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter before a punt return touchdown sparked a Seahawks comeback that required two 2-point conversions and a Los Angeles missed field goal. The Rams led the time of possession 40:33 to 26:14, and I expect McVay to approach this game with the same physical mindset and attack Seattle’s defense with the ground game and tight ends.
• The other unsung Los Angeles player that was out in the week 16 game against Seattle was nickelback Quentin Lake, who conceded just 0.80 yards per cover snap in the slot through the first 11 weeks (4th) before dislocating his elbow.
• The Rams are allowing 0.6 yppl fewer and 0.07 EPA/play fewer with Lake on the field compared to off this year. Lake returned from injury for the playoffs and the Rams’ defense is rated 5th by our numbers with Lake on the field.
• Los Angeles with Lake would’ve conceded only 10 points in Chicago last week if it weren’t for Caleb Williams completing a game-tying touchdown pass to Cole Kmet from 26.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The unrepeatable pass traveled 51.2 yards in the air, the longest completed pass by air distance in the red zone in the last decade.
• Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL against the 49ers and will be sidelined on Sunday. Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak prefers Charbonnet in short-yardage situations, as 54% of Charbonnet’s carries go between the tackles, while Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker only has 38% of his carries between the tackles.
• The absence of Charbonnet will result in mostly outside zone for Seattle’s offense this week, making Los Angeles having Lake back on the field for the playoff even more valuable because the Seahawks will be running directly at him. The Rams conceded only 3.9 yards per carry with Lake on the field compared to 4.8 without him. Lake blows up outside zone with an Average Depth of Tackle of 3.3 yards, ranking 3rd among nickelbacks.
• The loss of Charbonnet will be felt in the passing game as well. Charbonnet is allowing 10.0% pressure rate compared to Walker surrendering 19.4% pressure rate.
• Further complicating Seattle’s pass protection is LT Charles Cross, who suffered a foot injury during the third quarter last week. He was ruled questionable to return and did not re-enter the game. This came after Cross had just returned from missing the final three regular-season games with a hamstring injury, and he was also dealing with a minor knee issue in practice leading up to the playoff game.
• Rams’ defensive coordinator Chris Shula will force a banged-up Cross and Walker to struggle by sending blitzes with his pass rush that was one of only two in the NFL to feature 3 players with 50+ pressures this year. Sam Darnold has a 3.5% Turnover Worthy Play Rate when blitzed (5th-worst).
• Los Angeles has a 82% zone coverage rate (8th-highest), and I expect them to play zone behind the blitzes because opposing defenses have not been able to man-up Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the NFL with 4.41 yards per route run versus man coverage.
• Darnold ranks 27th relatively against zone coverage compared to man, and he will be shut down under pressure against the Los Angeles zone blitzes.
• The Rams conceded a 50% success rate to opposing tight ends (9th), and Los Angeles S Kam Curl allowed only 2 receptions for 11 yards on 4 targets in coverage last week. Curl will contain Seahawks tight end AJ Barner, who averaged 0.44 EPA/target (3rd).
• Our model favors Los Angeles by 0.5 points (with a predicted total of 48.1 points), even with an extra point for Seattle’s home field advantage for this being the Rams third consecutive road game. The Rams also apply to a 23-6 ATS division revenge playoff angle.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at +2.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +2).