Game Analysis

Lean – LA Rams (+6/+5.5) over SEATTLE

· This game was Seattle by 3 on the advanced spread and likely would’ve opened Seahawks -4 or -4.5 after Seattle’s impressive win over the Jets last week and Rams loss to the Chargers. I believe the line has ballooned to -6 because it is a must win for the Seahawks while the Rams have been eliminated.

· However, we know that matters little historically in the last week of the year as teams relish playing spoiler.  In fact, in the final 2 weeks of the regular season teams that are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention are 101-70-5 ATS against teams that are in a must-win situation (i.e. a loss would automatically eliminate them from the playoffs).

· The Rams are targeting tight ends on a quarter of pass attempts since losing Cooper Kupp and I think Baker Mayfield will be zeroing in on Tyler Higbee this week as the  Seahawks are surrendering 9.2 yards per target to TEs this year (31st).

· The Rams have had six different guards get at least 180 snaps this season. The current occupants Oday Aboushi and Chandler Brewer have combined to concede only 9 pressures in 292 pass blocking snaps.

· Seattle interior defender Quinton Jefferson ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency but he has been sick all week and likely will be contained by Aboushi.

· Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks tore his ACL but he ranks 45th out of 46 qualifying linebackers in coverage grade by PFF so I don’t think it is a major loss for the defense.

· Los Angeles has the talent in the secondary to match Seattle’s wide receivers. DK Metcalf will be limited by CB Jalen Ramsey, who ranks 19th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Rams nickelback Cobie Durant is conceding only 0.60 yards per cover snap in the slot and will battle on the inside versus Tyler Lockett, who has a 65% success rate (3rd).

· The Rams have a 6.3% sack rate for the season, and it is actually higher at 7.7% since Aaron Donald went out but the run defense is much worse.

· Los Angeles was conceding a 34% rush success rate through week 12 with Donald and they have a 46% rush success rate allowed without Donald. Seattle RB Kenneth Walker versus the Jets ran for 133 yards on 23 carries I could see the Rams giving Walker a multitude of touches again on Sunday.

· Los Angeles has been 0.13 EPA/play worse excluding turnovers since the Donald ankle sprain translating to about 8 points per game. I don’t think Donald is worth 8 points, but this defense is near the bottom of the NFL at this point.

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 5.2 with a predicted total of 40.1.