Game Analysis

LA Rams (-4.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO

• Matthew Stafford has thrown 9 blitzed touchdowns in the last two games, but he won’t be getting those looks on Sunday. The 49ers have only a 22% blitz rate (31st).
• San Francisco’s defense should probably blitz more because the 49ers only have a 28% pressure rate without edge rushers Bryce Huff and Nick Bosa compared to a 53% pressure rate with both on the field. Additionally, San Francisco edge defender Mykel Williams tore his ACL last week and will be out for the remainder of the year.
• The 49ers are also without All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. This defense is 4.6 points worse without Warner, Bosa, Huff, and Williams, according to our metrics.
• San Francisco nickelback Upton Stout is surrendering 1.40 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst), and he will struggle on the inside versus WR Puka Nacua, who is averaging 0.69 EPA/target (3rd).
• The Rams’ defense is fresh after being on the field for just 41 snaps last week, and the pass rush will wreak havoc against Mac Jones.
• Los Angeles interior defender Kobie Turner has 25 pressures (10th), and he will line up across from LG Spencer Burford, who started and played every snap last week, making him the fourth San Francisco player to line up there this season. Burford gave up a sack against the Giants.
• The Rams have won their last two games by scores of 34-10 and 35-7 but teams that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in each of their last two games are just 13-47 ATS, including 2-22 ATS on the road. The 49ers, meanwhile, apply to a 92-28-1 ATS home underdog situation.
• Our model favors the Rams by 9.1 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points, but the situation strongly favors the 49ers. I used the 49ers in my spread pool.