Los Angeles Rams @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 18
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: San Francisco 49ers +3.5, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over LA Rams

Jimmy Garoppolo was pulled at halftime in his first game back last week as he threw just 13% of his passes accurately, the worst single-game mark since 2016 according to PFF’s ball-charting process. Garoppolo is now averaging 1.6 yppp less than he did a season ago but it’s not all his fault as some of the blame needs to be put on Kyle Shannahan. Garoppolo has the league’s lowest percentage of passes thrown to a receiver considered open or wide open (30%). I still believe Shannahan is one of the best play-callers in the NFL and Garoppolo will almost certainly improve as his high-ankle sprain heals, but it might not be this week.

The Rams have the league’s top pass defense thus far and are holding opposing tight ends to 4.2 yards per target, which could be trouble for George Kittle (4th in yards per route run). Laken Tomlinson and Daniel Brunskill rank 45th and 47th respectively out of 50 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and they have no shot of staying in front of Aaron Donald (leads NFL with 7.5 sacks).

The power of Sean McVay’s scheme has shown through so far this season as Jared Goff leads the league in yppp while ranking last in air yards per attempt. McVay is making it easy on Goff using play-action on nearly half of all dropbacks (49%). For perspective, the current record for highest play-action rate in a season is Washington in 2012 at 40%.

The 49ers starting nickelback K’Waun Williams is now on injured reserve due to a sprained ACL in his knee. Jamar Taylor took his place and surrendered 93 yards against last week and now has a very difficult matchup on the inside versus Cooper Kupp. San Francisco edge rusher Kerry Hyder has 3.5 sacks (11th) and Arik Armstead has added 19 pressures but the tandem will be limited by LT Andrew Whitworth and RT Rob Havenstein, who are both among the league’s top 10 tackles by pass blocking efficiency.

Our model favors the Rams by just 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 48.0 points. The matchups favor the Rams and more scoring than projected. However, San Francisco applies to a very good 88-28-5 ATS situation that plays on underdogs coming off a loss as a big favorite. I’ll lean with the Niners.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • 49ers


  • Pass Plays 31.3 40.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 61.0% 51.9%
  • Sack Rate 4.2% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.8% 13.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 50.9% 34.7%
  • NYPP 8.9 6.3


  • Rush Plays 37.0 24.7
  • RB YPR 4.7 4.9
  • Stuff Rate 14.7% 8.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 61.7% 64.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.8% 34.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.6 4.8


  • All Snaps 68.3 65.3
  • Early Down Succ 62.8% 59.9%
  • Succ Rate 61.1% 56.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 47.1% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.6 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 25.2
  • Run Ratio 54.1% 37.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.7
  • Game Control 1.3 -1.3
  • Points 29.7 23.7
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