Game Analysis
Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (+9.5) over LA Rams
The advanced spread for this game was Rams -12.5, but after an impressive 49ers performance on Monday night in Lambeau and a backdoor cover by the Broncos vs the Rams, this line has moved down a few points. Kyle Shanahan schemed the hell out of the Packers in the first half as San Francisco’s offense gained 10.0 yards per play, but Green Bay made some halftime adjustments and held the 49ers to 4.3 yards per play in the final two quarters. Still, C.J. Beathard is gaining 6.7 yards per pass play for the season (13th), mostly due to Shanahan’s excellent play calling, and he could find some success against a Rams defense that is still without Aqib Talib. Los Angeles is surrendering 7.3 yards per pass play without Talib in the lineup compared to 5.9 yards per pass play in the first three weeks of the season.
Aaron Rodgers threw 17 passes of 10+ yards downfield against the 49ers, but only 3 to the right side where Richard Sherman plays. Sherman has been targeted on just 5.5% of his cover snaps this season, the lowest rate in the league and significantly below the NFL cornerback average of 15.3%. Sherman will take one of Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods out of the equation and Jared Goff may be low on options with Cooper Kupp out as well with a knee injury. Goff targets tight ends on just 11% of his passes (2nd-fewest), but that may be where he needs to go with the ball as San Francisco’s defense surrenders just 5.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (9th-fewest) and Todd Gurley should be limited out of the backfield.
Our model favors the Rams by just 7.9 points and I’ll lean with the 49ers in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.8
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
57.0%
45.3%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.7%
45.6%
-
NYPP
9.6
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.8
20.8
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
11.9%
21.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
55.4%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.2%
31.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.7
56.3
-
Early Down Succ
59.5%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
56.0%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.2%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
7.3
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
31.0
-
Run Ratio
48.9%
38.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
25.0
-
Game Control
6.1
-6.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.0%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
10.0%
5.8%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
0.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.4%
19.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.5%
40.0%
-
NYPP
7.1
8.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.0
26.3
-
RB YPR
5.2
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.3%
15.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.1%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
65.0
-
Early Down Succ
51.6%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
51.1%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.0%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
27.5
-
Run Ratio
45.3%
43.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.9
33.0
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
44.8% /
44.4% |
24.1% /
5.6% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
61 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
49.2% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
38.4% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
46.7% |
24.1% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
70 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
51.4% |
42.9% /
28.2% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
42.9% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
71 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
42.3% |
46.4% /
47.4% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.7% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
71.1% /
80.0% |
10.5% /
10.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
16.4 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
72 /
36 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
61.1% /
44.4% |
41.2% /
47.1% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
4.2% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
72.2% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 33 L |
1.4 |
52.0% /
37.5% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
8.4 |
66.7% /
52.4% |
13.3% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
55 /
69 |
67.4% /
44.4% |
60.0% /
42.0% |
54.1% /
55.5% |
7.3 /
7.6 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
30.4% |
25.9 /
32.0 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
San Francisco 49ers