Los Angeles Rams @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Nov 10
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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LA Rams (-3.5) vs PITTSBURGH

Jared Goff’s trio of wide receivers have drastically different prospects in this matchup. Cooper Kupp has gained 2.68 yards per route run (4th), 7.1 yards after the catch (1st), and has picked up 28 first downs. Kupp runs 74% of his routes from the slot and nickelback is the weakness of Pittsburgh’s defense with Mike Hilton surrendering 1.36 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst). Meanwhile, outside cornerbacks Steven Nelson and Joe Haden are both ranked inside the top 15 in yards allowed per cover snap and should neutralize Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks (if he’s cleared from a concussion). TJ Watt has a league-high 33% pass rush win rate and the edge defender has an advantageous matchup across from right tackle Rob Havenstein, who is ranked 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Furthermore, Javon Hargrave and Cameron Heyward both rank in the top 15 in pass rushing efficiency and will wreak havoc against this horrendous Rams interior offensive line. Brian Allen and Austin Blythe are both among the only 15 centers and guards to have already conceded 20 pressures. Also, the Rams have struggled mightily to replace Joseph Noteboom at left guard. Goff is likely to see tremendous pressure and won’t get help from the ground game as the Steelers have the top-ranked rush defense in the NFL.

The Rams have the 7th-rated rush defense led by Michael Brockers, whose 11.2% run stop rate ranks 2nd among interior defenders, and I do not expect the Steelers to run the ball well in this game. Instead, Mason Rudolph will likely struggle as well, as the young quarterback’s top target JuJu Smith-Schuster will be blanketed. Smith-Schuster runs 61% of his routes on the inside but probably won’t have success versus Nickell Robey-Coleman, who is surrendering a league-low 0.53 yards per cover snap in the slot. Rudolph won’t have James Conner to throw to out of the backfield, which hurts given that Jaylen Samuels has averaged just 5.6 yards per target (7.6 YPT for Conners). Aaron Donald leads all interior defenders with a 28% pass rush win rate and edge defender Dante Fowler has a 27% pass rush win rate (6th). However, Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and should limit Los Angeles up front.

Cooper Kupp is the Rams’ only hope of moving the ball as the Steelers defense has advantageous matchups everywhere else on the field. Pittsburgh’s offense will need to get creative in the screen game to beat this Los Angeles defense but not having Conners will hinder that strategy. Our model makes the Rams a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.3. The matchups significantly favor the under so we will not be playing this total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • Steelers


  • Pass Plays 40.9 39.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.9% 47.0%
  • Sack Rate 4.3% 7.1%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 14.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.7% 29.9%
  • NYPP 7.0 6.4


  • Rush Plays 24.9 27.3
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 28.3% 23.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.3% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.3% 30.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.6


  • All Snaps 65.8 66.5
  • Early Down Succ 51.4% 47.8%
  • Succ Rate 47.8% 45.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.1% 30.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 28.2
  • Run Ratio 38.7% 40.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.9 30.7
  • Game Control 2.6 -2.6
  • Points 26.8 21.8
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