Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *LA Rams (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS

• The Rams have converted a league-low 20% of third downs over the past four weeks because they couldn’t hold up in pass protection, but starting right tackle Rob Havenstein will likely be back on the field on Sunday.
• Havenstein is conceding a 4.3% pressure rate and Los Angeles LT Alaric Jackson is allowing only a 4.6% pressure rate while backup tackle Warren McClendon has surrendered 5 sacks (9th-most) in only 5 games.
• Havenstein and Jackson will limit Saints edge defenders Carl Granderson and Chase Young, who each have 39 pressures (15th).
• Matthew Stafford will have time in the pocket to find Puka Nacua downfield across from CB Alontae Taylor, who’s surrendering 1.89 yards per cover snap ranking last out of 81 qualifying cornerbacks. Nacua has a 61% success rate (9th).
• Derek Carr will not be afforded the same protection as two starters on the New Orleans interior offensive line are likely out in LG Lucas Patrick and C Erik McCoy. Los Angeles interior defenders Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske have combined for 70 pressures and will wreak havoc on the backups.
• Rams edge defenders Jared Verse and Byron Young rank 8th and 11th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency and they have a favorable matchup against the Saints tackles. LT Taliese Fuaga has surrendered 27 pressures (9th-most) while RT Trevor Penning has surrendered 26 pressures (12th-most).
• The Rams are allowing a league-high 0.50 EPA/target to opposing RBs and they could struggle to defend screens to Alvin Kamara, who leads running backs averaging 1.83 yards per route run.
• However, Kamara and Taysom Hill will be bottled up on the ground as the Rams have the 3rd-rated rush defense according to our metrics.
• New Orleans has a 46% 2 WR rate (2nd-highest) but Los Angeles has shown an ability to defend heavy personnel – allowing a league-low 80% yppp compared to when opposing offenses do not use formations with only 2 WRs.
• Our model favors the Rams by 6 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -110 or better.