Game Analysis
Lean – NEW ORLEANS (+1.5) over LA Rams
This matchup will feature the top two teams in the NFC according to our metrics and the success of both these high-powered offenses can be traced back to the trenches. The New Orleans offensive line ranks 1st in pass blocking efficiency, but they’ll have a tough battle versus a Rams front that just added another impact player. Los Angeles traded for Dante Fowler this week, who probably wasn’t seeing as many snaps as he should’ve in Jacksonville behind Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. Fowler would rank 12th among edge rushers in pass rush efficiency if he qualified and should provide a noticeable upgrade over Samson Ebukam and John Franklin-Myers. The Rams standard pass rush will now include Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, and Dante Fowler – perhaps the most talented group in the league – and a worthy adversary for the Saints offensive line. The Los Angeles offensive line is leading the top-rated ground game in our numbers and they may match up favorably against New Orleans’ 3rd-rated rush defense. Left guard Roger Saffold may be the top run blocker on the Rams offensive line as they average 5.3 yards per rush running behind him and he will likely dominate across from Tyeler Davison, who’s recorded just one run stop all season.
The Rams defense has been 0.8 yards per pass play worse since Aqib Talib was lost to an ankle injury in week 3 and Marcus Peters hasn’t looked like himself after injuring his calf in that same game. Peters is allowing 1.90 yards per cover snap since the injury, which ranks 2nd-worst among 65 qualifying cornerbacks. The Rams will likely get Cooper Kupp, gaining 2.88 yards per tour run from the slot (6th), back from injury and he’s worth about a half point.
Our model favors the New Orleans by 0.3 points and the Saints are now a home underdog. I’m going to lean with New Orleans on the basis of an 82-25-1 ATS home momentum situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
35.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.0%
43.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.7%
54.3%
-
NYPP
8.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
21.0
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
13.8%
21.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.1%
49.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.7%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
56.0
-
Early Down Succ
58.5%
45.9%
-
Succ Rate
54.4%
46.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.0%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
30.5
-
Run Ratio
49.9%
38.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.3
24.7
-
Game Control
6.2
-6.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.0
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
59.3%
57.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
0.6%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.4%
19.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.6%
41.7%
-
NYPP
7.9
8.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
23.7
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
14.7%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.0%
41.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.9%
34.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.3
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
58.0%
51.5%
-
Succ Rate
54.4%
51.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.0%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.2
-
Run Ratio
44.8%
39.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.4
25.5
-
Game Control
1.9
-1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% /
29.4% |
7.7% /
20.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.1 /
3.6 |
57.9% /
62.5% |
10.5% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
58 |
67.4% /
47.8% |
56.3% /
43.1% |
37.1% /
68.9% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
59.4% /
41.4% |
40.8 /
26.7 |
| 8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
28.6% /
21.1% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
76 /
52 |
43.6% /
58.1% |
43.4% /
51.9% |
51.3% /
69.4% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
46.1% /
36.5% |
31.7 /
21.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% /
64.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
14.9 |
69.2% /
43.2% |
23.1% /
18.9% |
3.3 /
3.1 |
59 /
65 |
77.6% /
56.5% |
72.9% /
52.3% |
36.4% /
62.7% |
8.1 /
8.2 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
56.9% |
25.9 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% /
48.5% |
7.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
37.5% /
33.3% |
25.0% /
14.8% |
2.6 /
3.4 |
62 /
60 |
60.4% /
43.5% |
53.2% /
41.7% |
30.8% /
43.4% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
3.2% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
45.0% |
35.0 /
28.4 |
| 3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% /
63.2% |
2.0% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
9.4 |
53.6% /
21.7% |
14.3% /
43.5% |
5.1 /
2.1 |
78 /
61 |
57.4% /
52.1% |
55.1% /
47.5% |
37.9% /
36.3% |
6.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
37.7% |
29.8 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% /
56.8% |
2.9% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
8.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
4.1 |
70 /
60 |
51.0% /
58.3% |
45.7% /
55.0% |
55.4% /
29.3% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
50.0% /
26.7% |
33.9 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
71.4% /
69.2% |
7.1% /
11.5% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
12.5 /
9.4 |
36.1% /
50.0% |
5.6% /
27.8% |
2.8 /
2.2 |
64 /
44 |
54.9% /
48.8% |
51.6% /
61.4% |
54.3% /
51.2% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
2.3% |
56.3% /
40.9% |
36.2 /
33.4 |
| 7 |
@BAL |
24 – 23 W |
-1.7 |
45.2% /
46.3% |
3.2% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
12.5% /
30.4% |
3.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
64 |
48.0% /
50.0% |
47.9% /
48.4% |
31.2% /
19.7% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
56.3% /
35.9% |
27.6 /
21.8 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
30 – 20 W |
5.9 |
62.5% /
56.8% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
4.2% /
2.5% |
6.8 /
7.7 |
48.3% /
40.9% |
13.8% /
31.8% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
53 /
66 |
56.8% /
50.9% |
54.7% /
51.5% |
34.1% /
40.2% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.7% /
33.3% |
38.3 /
21.6 |
Los Angeles Rams
@ 
New Orleans Saints