Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *LA Rams (-4.5 -115) over NEW ENGLAND

• New England’s offensive line is going to fall apart on Sunday against this Rams front. Patriots LT Vederian Lowe and RT Demontrey Jacobs rank 54th and 60th respectively in pass-blocking efficiency out of 61 qualifying tackles. The pair will struggle against Los Angeles edge defenders Byron Young and Jared Verse. Young ranks 11th in pass-rushing efficiency and Verse has a 20% pressure rate (3rd).
• Furthermore, New England’s tackles haven’t even been the worst part of the offensive line as the guards and centers are at fault for 63% of the pressures (31st). Rams’ interior defenders Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner rank 5th and 7th respectively in pass-rushing efficiency.
• New England offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will not be able to protect rookie quarterback Drake Maye with the ground game. The Patriots have the 5th-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation but RB Rhamondre Stevenson has finished a game with a yards per carry above 4.0 just twice this season and Los Angeles is conceding only 4.3 yards per rush (8th).
• Matthew Stafford’s 50% off-target rate on throws into the end zone this year is unsustainably high. The Rams averaged 0.03 EPA/dropback in the red zone last year (8th) and they should improve in that area going forward.
• Stafford has a favorable matchup as Los Angeles is averaging 13% more yppp vs Cover 1 than other coverages (9th) and New England’s defense has the 4th-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Our model favors the Rams by 8.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 or less (Strong Opinion at -5.5).