Los Angeles Rams @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Dec 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Minnesota Vikings +3.5, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – First-Half Over (23.5) – LA Rams (-3) vs MINNESOTA

Kirk Cousins averaged just 2.2 yards per pass play last Monday night but I expect him to play well back in his home dome this week. Cousins has not completed a single pass under pressure in 18 attempts with WR Adam Theilen (ankle) not available as an underneath option in the last two games. However, Thielen should suit up this week which will also open it up downfield for Justin Jefferson, who is averaging 2.60 yards per route run (4th). Minnesota’s interior offensive line is allowing 7 pressures per game and will struggle to contain Aaron Donald (2nd in pass rushing efficiency) and Greg Gaines (15th in pass rushing efficiency).

The Vikings do not have the personnel on the back end to stay with Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham as Minnesota’s cornerbacks are combining to surrender 1.31 yards per cover snap this season. Matthew Stafford is averaging 7.6 yppp (2nd) and the Rams should be able to pick apart the Vikings below average pass defense.

Our model favors the Rams by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of 52.4 points, so there is value on the over. In this case, the First-Half Over 23.5 (-120 odds or better) is a better option but going over 49 or less for the game would also be a Strong Opinion if your books doesn’t have first-half totals.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Rams
  • Vikings
LOS
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.08 39.50
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.1% 47.7%
  • Sack Rate 4.2% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.5% 13.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.6% 33.6%
  • NYPP 7.55 6.03



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.85 26.42
  • RB YPR 4.11 3.69
  • Stuff Rate 23.9% 25.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.9% 49.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.8% 38.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.08 3.80




Game

  • All Snaps 61.92 65.92
  • Early Down Succ 56.4% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 52.7% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.0% 34.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.21 5.14
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.62 28.60
  • Run Ratio 38.5% 40.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.47 27.94
  • Game Control 2.92 -2.92
 
  • Points 27.92 22.54
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