Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *LA Rams (+1) over INDIANAPOLIS

2-Star Best Bet – First Half Over (23)

· The Colts rank 9th in early down EPA/play and the Rams rank 12th in that metric. The Los Angeles defense was rated 29th coming into the year by the market and Indianapolis was 30th. I hold onto priors for defense longer than offense’ especially when both head coaches are the offensive play-callers.

· The Rams’ offense had a 50% success rate last week in the first half (9th) before starting left tackle Alaric Jackson went down. According to coach McVay, backup LT “Zach Thomas had done a really good job with a lot of the repetitions that he had gotten, and felt like making a two-man switch wasn’t in the best interest,” McVay said Monday. “We’ll look at the tape and figure out if that’s something that we want to do moving forward if Alaric is out for an extended period of time.”

· Spoiler alert – the tape is going to reveal Thomas needs to be benched after he surrendered 2 sacks and 3 hurries on only 26 pass blocking snaps. The Rams will use Joe Noteboom to replace Jackson as Noteboom got 325 snaps at left tackle last year. This will solidify the Los Angeles offensive line to the point where Jackson is worth just 0.4 points.

· The Colts’ defense has only a 30% pressure rate (28th) despite facing Baltimore’s offense live without two starters and Houston’s offensive line without four starters.

· The Indianapolis pass defense is overrated as they have added 9.5% of win probability from opponent-dropped passes (4th-most). Matthew Stafford is averaging 6.4 yppp (10th) and he will likely get even better versus this defense in a dome.

· The Colts will likely get back Anthony Richardson and starting center Ryan Kelly on Sunday. Only 39% of the Colts’ pressures are allowed by the interior of the offensive line (5th) despite Kelly missing a game and a half. I expect the Indianapolis interior offensive line to limit Aaron Donald.

· Colts LT Bernhard Raimann ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency, and he should contain edge defender Byron Young, who has 13 pressures (10th).

· Shane Steichen and Sean McVay are two of the best scripters in the NFL. Indianapolis ranks 15 spots higher in EPA on the first 15 plays than they do on non-scripted plays. Los Angeles averaged 3.6 more points in the first halves than second halves last season.

· Our model favors the Rams by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 51.0 points, and the Colts apply to a 28-100-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on their consecutive wins and OT win as a big dog last week at Baltimore.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and the First-Half Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 23.5 or less.