Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – 1^st-Half OVER (23.5 -105) – LA Rams (-3.5) vs INDIANAPOLIS

Alternate play is full game Over (47.5) up to 49

We are getting a Rams total around league average again when they should likely be lined above 50 nearly every game this season.

Matthew Stafford made a difference for Sean McVay’s offense last week with a third of the passes going for 15+ yards, which was the highest rate in the league. I expect Los Angeles to move the ball with relative ease against a mediocre Indianapolis defense.

The Colts struggled offensively last week with third-string LT Julie’n Davenport surrendering two sacks, two hits, and four hurries. However, starting left tackle Eric Fisher looks on track to be in the lineup this Sunday. I expect Aaron Donald to be limited by Frank Reich’s scheme and talent on the interior of the offensive line. All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson and RG Mark Glowinski conceded just 2.7 pressures per game last season. Carson Wentz should have time in the pocket and Indianapolis will have a better showing on offense this week.

Our model favors the Rams by 6.3 points with a predicted total of 52.6 points.

It is better to play first half over when the total is around 48 because of key numbers. More than 7% of games with totals lined in this area land on 24 in the first half so being able to go over 23.5 points in the first-half is better than going over the full game total. I trust McVay and Reich to put in an effective offensive game plan to score early. The first-half Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 23.5 up to -120 odds. The alternate Best Bet is the full game total over 49 or less (if you don’t have first-half totals or have a first-half line of 24 points or more).