Game Analysis

Lean – GREEN BAY (-7) over LA Rams

· Baker Mayfield led a 98-yard game-winning drive with only 1:35 left and no timeouts last Thursday night and now we’re seeing some unwarranted excitement for the Rams.

· The drive had a pass interference overturn an interception and an unsportsmanlike conduct on the Raiders turned a 2nd & 19 at the Rams 13 yardline into a 1st & 10 at the 28 yardline.

· Baker Mayfield still has a 36% success rate in 2022 ranking 50th out of 54 qualifying quarterbacks.

· The Rams offense was averaging -0.113 EPA/play (31st) with Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson through the first 8 games of the season. They are not going to be significantly better without those three.

· Kupp and Robinson are the only Rams receivers with more than 30 targets this season to be gaining positive expected points when targeted.

· The Los Angeles defense is without Aaron Donald. The Rams did not have a sack last week without the All-Pro interior defender.

· The Rams have surrendered a 48% rush success rate the last two weeks without Donald (25th) and they will not get stops against a Packers rush offense with a 46% success rate (4th).

· Green Bay RB Aaron Jones should also have room in the receiving game as Los Angeles is allowing 6.3 yards per target to running backs (27th).

· Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are still alive with nearly a 10% chance to make the playoffs.

· Green Bay is 29-6 after week 10 of the season when hosting teams that play in domes when home and we could be seeing temperatures in the single digits on Monday night.

· Our model favors the Packers by 9.0 points, with a predicted total of 39.4 points.