Game Analysis

Note: This Best Bet Over has moved out of range.

2-Star Best Bet -** Over (51) – DETROIT (-3.5) over LA Rams

• I want to start by talking about the change in the scoring environment. Kickoff rules have resulted in preseason drives starting 5 yards further up the field. There are about 5 kickoffs per game, so this translates to an expected 1.7 points more of scoring.
• We’ve got the new hip-drop tackle rule which will result in a 15-yard penalty and an automatic first-down. I think there’s a chance more of these are called in week 1 so the NFL can emphasize the rule but, for now, let’s be conservative and say this will add 0.3 points per game to scoring.
• These two factors combine to make the NFL scoring environment 2 points higher than it was in 2023.
• The Rams and Lions met in the opening round of the playoffs with a closing total of 53. Adding 2 points for the new rules makes 55. So did these two offenses get worse or did the defenses get 4 points better? Neither is the answer.
• The Rams were 3-6 heading into the bye last year until Sean McVay made a vital change on offense. They started using Pistol formation, which blended their under-center run concepts with Matthew Stafford’s shotgun passing game.
• Stafford averaged 6.5 yppp pre-bye and 7.2 yppp after week 10.
• Los Angeles jumped from 4 yards per carry pre-bye to 4.5 post-bye. They’re getting even beefier up front to lean into those Duo runs replacing Coleman Shelton with Jonah Jackson on the interior offensive line.
• The Rams offense was rated 1.5 points better than average in the market heading into the playoffs last season and now they’ve had a whole offseason to work on this new approach. This is clearly a top-10 offense heading into 2024.
• Detroit’s offense kept the coaching staff and nearly all of the personnel from last year intact except one change on the offensive line that graded 2nd in run blocking and 13th in pass blocking efficiency.
• They swapped guard Jonah Jackson for Kevin Zeitler, who was one of 6 qualifying guards to concede fewer than 20 pressures last year. With changes on the Dallas and Philly offensive lines this offseason, I have the Lions with clearly the best group in the NFL.
• The Lions have back WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was 4th in success rate. The receiving group also returns TE Sam LaPorta, who was 3rd in EPA/target. They lose WR Josh Reynolds but WR Jameson Williams is poised to step into that second WR role for Jared Goff.
• The market has Detroit’s offense rated as top 3 unit, as they were going into the playoffs last season, and I agree.
• So now we have to examine if these defenses got 4 points better to justify this being a lower total than when these teams faced off in January.
• The Rams lost Aaron Donald, who added 0.6 wins above replacement in 2023. I think it’s possible the Rams could come close to matching his production in the aggregate with additions in the secondary, but it would be wild if the defense got better losing one of the best players of all time.
• Los Angeles also lost a very good defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who is now the head coach in Atlanta. This defense finished the season rated 26th in the market and they are unlikely to get much better.
• Detroit’s defense will get better after using their first and second-round picks on cornerbacks and bringing in CB Carlton Davis. However, Aaron Glenn’s defense loses safety CJ Gardner-Johnson.
• The Lions also added interior defender DJ Reader, who graded 6th in run defense by PFF along with his 34 pressures. “There’s a chance” Reader plays on Sunday, per Dan Campbell. The original plan was for week 2 though. I’ll mark him in to be cautious with the projection but there’s upside for this over if Reader is out.
• Detroit’s secondary is a half point better by our metrics and DJ Reader is worth a half point.
• Last note to consider is Rams LT Alaric Jackson is suspended for the first two games. His backup Joe Noteboom is one of the more experienced swing tackles in the NFL. Noteboom has conceded a 7.4% pressure rate in his career. Jackson allowed a 7.4% pressure rate in 2023.
• Jackson was starting for a reason though so let’s be conservative and say he’s a half point better. Then also subtract Detroit’s defense’s upgrade from the 55 we started at after the rule change adjustments. This leaves 53.5 points as a conservative floor for where this total could be.
• Our model favors the Lions by 4.5 points, with a predicted total of 54.4 points, but the Rams apply to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 51 -115 or better and 1-Star Over up to 52 points.