Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (44) – CINCINNATI (-3) vs LA Rams

· Joe Burrow is feeling better and will start tonight barring a setback from now until kickoff according to the Enquirer.

· This total is way too low even if you think Cincinnati’s offense is below average due to Joe Burrow’s calf. We have ideal weather and two mediocre defenses with the Rams allowing a 48% success rate (27th) and the Bengals surrendering a 49% success rate (29th). The mean market total is 44.5 points so far this season and this total should clearly be higher than the mean.

· The Rams are averaging 0.15 EPA/dropback (9th). It’s safe to say this will be at least a league-average offense as long as Sean McVay is the coach and Matthew Stafford is healthy.

· Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua is making this offense click without Cooper Kupp. Nacua’s 23 catches in the first two games of his career are 4 more than any receiver in NFL history. Nacua is one of five WRs gaining more than 3 yards per route run.

· I expect the Rams to move the ball on the ground in this matchup. Los Angeles running back Kyren Williams has had 83% of his carries come on gap concept rushes. Cincinnati’s defense has surrendered 219 yards on gap concepts through two weeks which is the most in the NFL.

· The market had the Bengals offense 2.7 points better than average going into the year. Clearly, Burrow’s calf affected him in the first two games. I am adjusting this offense down3 points from the prior expectation.

· However, the Rams cornerbacks are terrible and won’t be able to guard Cincinnati’s wide receivers. Ja’Marr Chase will be lining up across from Los Angeles CB Derion Kendrick, who ranks 9th-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· The total was 48.5 when these teams met in the Super Bowl a year and a half ago before the Rams lost every above-replacement-level defensive player outside of Aaron Donald. Cincinnati’s defense has departed ways with both starting safeties and beefed up the offensive line.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 2.5 with a predicted total of 50.2 points.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 45 or less and 1-Star up to 46 points.