Los Angeles Rams @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA Rams (+2.5) over BUFFALO

Buffalo’s offense has played the easiest schedule in the league through two weeks. The Jets defense surrendered 6.1 yppl to a 49ers offense without Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle.in week 2 and Miami’s defense did not have their best player, CB Byron Jones, when the Bills played them this past week. Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen is playing over his head, as he’s connected on 86% of his throws with 15+ air yards, which is nearly triple his percentage on such throws coming into this season. I expect Josh Allen to regress as the season rolls on, as it’s highly unlikely that he’s suddenly become an accurate quarterback after being below average in that category in college and in his NFL career prior to the last two weeks. Allen’s chances of continuing his passing success this week is also hindered by the match up that his new favorite receiver is facing. Stefon Diggs is 9th in yards per route run but I do not imagine Buffalo’s new wide receiver will be much of a factor this week across from Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey

Jared Goff leads the NFL with 8.8 yards per pass play and it won’t come as a surprise to most that Sean McVay’s play calling is playing a major role in his quarterback’s success. Goff has a league-high 48% play action utilization rate, which is a good way to improve pass efficiency by holding the linebackers out of their zones and limiting pass rushers. Last week, Philadelphia’s usually elite pass-rush was barely able to affect Goff, putting him under pressure on just 20% of his dropbacks.

McVay will need to scheme bootlegs and a moving pocket this week as the Bills could cause trouble on the Rams interior offensive line. Los Angeles will be without starting RG Joseph Noteboom (calf injury) and Center Austin Blythe is on pace for another season ranked in the bottom 5 of pass blocking efficiency. Bills interior defender Ed Oliver ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency. Meanwhile, LT Andrew Whitworth has conceded just 1 pressure thus far and he should neutralize edge defender Mario Addison (2nd in pass rush efficiency).

Our model makes Buffalo a 2.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.4 points. There could be strong winds on Sunday so this matchup could come down to each team’s performance on the ground. The line is fair but I think the matchup favors the Rams.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
Bills

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.0 42.5
Succ Pass Plays 62.1% 49.4%
Sack Rate 3.3% 3.6%
Int Rate 1.6% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 16.8% 8.9%
Big Pass Yards 52.2% 21.4%
NYPP 8.8 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 39.5 26.5
RB YPR 4.4 4.6
Stuff Rate 12.7% 5.6%
Succ Rush Plays 58.2% 66.2%
Big Rush Yards 37.0% 28.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.8

Game

All Snaps 69.5 69.0
Early Down Succ 61.5% 60.1%
Succ Rate 59.8% 55.8%
Big Yards Rate 46.5% 23.9%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 23.3
Run Ratio 56.9% 38.4%
Starting Field Pos 30.3 28.1
Game Control 6.4 -6.4

Points 28.5 18.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	20 – 17 W	3.4	56.3% / 52.4%	3.1% / 7.1%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.8	57.5% / 59.3%	12.5% / 11.1%	3.8 / 5.0	72 / 69	57.7% / 63.0%	56.9% / 55.1%	40.3% / 30.8%	5.9 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 39.1%	29.0 / 27.1
2	@PHI	37 – 19 W	9.4	67.9% / 46.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.7%	9.2 / 5.6	59.0% / 73.1%	12.8% / 0.0%	4.9 / 4.7	67 / 69	65.4% / 57.1%	62.7% / 56.5%	52.8% / 17.1%	6.7 / 5.3	1.5% / 1.4%	58.2% / 37.7%	31.6 / 29.1

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	27 – 17 W	12.9	55.1% / 36.8%	6.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.2 / 5.3	40.6% / 60.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.1 / 3.5	81 / 53	48.4% / 47.5%	49.4% / 43.4%	27.5% / 47.2%	5.0 / 4.8	2.5% / 1.9%	39.5% / 28.3%	39.5 / 20.7
2	@MIA	31 – 28 W	4.2	61.1% / 48.0%	2.8% / 6.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.5 / 6.2	39.1% / 63.6%	17.4% / 18.2%	4.8 / 4.5	59 / 72	55.3% / 56.9%	52.5% / 52.8%	70.0% / 29.5%	8.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	39.0% / 30.6%	20.4 / 26.9

Los Angeles Rams @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Sep 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis