Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **LA Rams (+1) over ARIZONA

• Much has been made this week about the Los Angeles offensive injuries but on Friday Jourdan Rodrigue reported RT Rob Havenstein and RG Kevin Dotson are expected to play Sunday. Havenstein ranked 10th in pass blocking efficiency last season and did not suit up last week. Dotson ranked 8th in pass blocking efficiency last week and his status was uncertain until the report.
• It looked like the Rams could be missing four offensive line starters for this game, but they’ll be down just two OL starters, which is worth 1.5 points according to our numbers.
• Sean McVay can protect the two backups by running the ball to keep Arizona’s pass rush off balance. The Rams averaged 30.5 rushes per game against the Cardinals last season. Arizona’s defense surrendered a 41.2% rush success rate in 2023 (29th) and a 50.0% rush success rate last week in Buffalo.
• The Cardinals pass rush had just a 26.7% pressure rate last week (25th) as they are without two starting edge defenders in BJ Ojulari and Darius Robinson.
• Los Angeles will be without WR Puka Nacua due to a PCL knee ligament sprain, but I believe Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp can handle this matchup on their own. Kupp had 21 targets last Sunday night and the Cardinals nickelbacks surrendered 2 touchdowns last week.
• Stafford can also look to Rams TE Colby Parkinson, who was among the seven tight ends to get at least 5 targets last week. Arizona’s linebackers allowed 2.54 yards per coverage snap versus the Bills.
• Most of the Cardinals offensive production last Sunday in Buffalo came on 3rd down, which isn’t sustainable. Kyler Murray averaged just -0.15 EPA/play on early downs (25th).
• Arizona’s tight ends had a 35.5% target share (2nd-highest) in week 1 but Trey McBride will be contained as the Rams defense conceded only 0.04 EPA/target to tight ends last season (5th).
• Cardinals starting right tackle Jonah Williams was sidelined after only 22 snaps and his backup Kelvin Beachum allowed 2 sacks in 25 pass blocking snaps.
• Our model favors the Rams by 3.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points, and Arizona applies to a negative 47-117-5 ATS early season situation.

The Rams are a 2-Star Best Bet at pick to dog and a 1-Star at -1.