Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (+4) over LA Rams

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (50.5)

· These teams met in the playoffs last season and the market closed Rams -3.5 and 49.5. The major roster changes since then are no WR DeAndre Hopkins for the Cardinals and no edge rusher Von Miller for the Rams which nearly cancels each other out. However, we’ve flipped home field and Los Angeles is favored by more than they were in the wild card round at home. Also, the game is on grass rather than turf and the total went up a point.

· The Rams also lost LT Andrew Whitworth this offseason. The Los Angeles offensive line is not off to a great start without Whitworth and starting center Brian Allen is sidelined after undergoing a knee procedure. The Rams’ offensive line has surrendered 26 pressures and has four penalties as a group. Arizona’s defense has a 37% pressure rate (5th) and Matthew Stafford will not be comfortable on Sunday.

· Cooper Kupp’s 236 receiving yards through two weeks ranks 4th among wide receivers, but Cardinals CB Byron Murphy is allowing only 4.8 yards per target and the All-Pro WR will at least have to work for it in this matchup.

· Kyler Murray’s offensive line was shored up last Sunday with the addition of LG Justin Pugh after the starter sat out the Chiefs game. Pugh did not allow a pressure versus the Raiders. Rodney Hudson led all centers in pass blocking efficiency last season. Pugh and Hudson can limit interior defender Aaron Donald, who already has 10 pressures (2nd).

· It hasn’t been an inspiring start for either team with Los Angeles at -1.4 net yppl and Arizona at -1.5 net yppl versus a harder schedule according to our metrics.

· Our model has the Cardinals by 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.2 points. Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 or more and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 50 points or more (Strong Opinion down to 49 points).