Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LA Chargers (-3 -105) over TENNESSEE

· After all the offseason chatter about fixing the conservative Joe Lombardi offense, Justin Herbert ranked 17th in average depth of target with new Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who was 26th in pass play rate versus expectation last week. The Chargers did not have a single standard drop back on first down (only RPOs and play-action) outside of the 2-minute drill. All that said, the Los Angeles offense finished 2nd in DVOA for week 1.

· The Chargers had a 70% rush success rate, the 2nd-highest in a game over the last two seasons. However, this is unlikely to continue with a banged-up Austin Ekeler, and Tennessee’s defense conceded only a league-low 17% success rate in week 1 after ranking 1st in rush EPA allowed last year.

· The Titans will also be able to take away the underneath routes to Keenan Allen as nickelback Roger McCreary allowed just 0.87 yards per cover snap in the slot last season (2nd).

· This means it should be the bombs-away offense we expected from Kellen Moore as Los Angeles goes from facing a two-high shell Vic Fangio defense in week 1 to a Front 7-dominated Mike Vrabel defense in week 2.

· Tennessee’s secondary could be without two starters in CB Kristian Fulton and S Amani Hooker. There should be plenty of space downfield for Chargers WR Mike Williams, who had 26 deep targets (10th-most) during his last full season in 2021.

· Titans’ new signing Arden Key led all edge defenders in pass-rushing efficiency last week, but he will be shut down by LT Rashawn Slater, who conceded only 1 pressure against the Dolphins.

· Chargers right tackle Trey Pipkins could struggle versus edge defender Denico Autry, who had 7 pressures last week (3rd).

· The Chargers defense surrendered nearly 5 yards per cover snap in the slot to the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have Tyreek Hill but his limited success in week 1 came from targeting receivers lined up on the inside. Tennessee WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine gained 3.22 yards per slot route run (6th).

· Los Angeles CB Michael Davis finished 20th in coverage grade by PFF last season and the 6-2, 196lb cornerback will battle on the outside against DeAndre Hopkins.

· Titans LT Andre Dillard had 6 blown pass blocks in week 1 (2nd-most) and it will likely be another rough outing for him in this game versus edge defender Khalil Mack, who had 6 pressures last week (7th).

· Our model favors the Chargers by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points, and the Chargers are a Strong Opinion at -3 to -115 odds.