Game Analysis
TENNESSEE (-2) vs LA Chargers
Titan’s quarterback Marcus Mariota is being benched in favor of Ryan Tannehill but the terrible production this season is not entirely his fault. The Titans have played in the 3rd-worst conditions for scoring according to our metrics and the play calling has dropped off from a year ago. Mariota’s expected completion percentage was 68% in 2018 (2nd) under offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur but it is only 62% this season (5th-lowest) with new play caller Arthur Smith. Mariota has been 2.1 points per game better than Ryan Tannehill throughout their careers according to our numbers mainly due to his scrambling ability. Mariota has added nearly 7 points on the ground thus far this season (7th-most), which is hidden value and something we are unlikely to see from Tannehill. Unless the play calling improves, Tennessee’s offense will get worse without Mariota under center.
Hunter Henry caught two touchdowns in his return from injury and he’s now averaging 2.35 yards per route run (7th). Henry provides a spark for the Chargers offense but will likely be limited this week as the Titans allow just 6.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th). After a hot start, Keenan Allen is down to 2.04 yards per route run (16th) and I expect the Pro Bowl wide receiver to be held in check by solid nickelbacks Logan Ryan and Adoree’ Jackson, who is conceding just 0.56 yards per cover snap (2nd). The Chargers offensive line is without left tackle Russell Okung and center Mike Pouncey and ranks 29th in pass blocking efficiency. Philip Rivers will need to get the ball out quickly versus Tennessee’s defensive front, especially if Cameron Wake returns this week. Rivers targets his running backs at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL with Austin Ekeler gaining 2.43 yards per route run (1st). The Titans are usually strong defending running backs out of the backfield but they are likely to be without linebacker Jayon Brown, who ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed per cover snap this year and last year.
Tennessee’s offense will get slightly worse with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. Hunter Henry and Keenan Allen draw tough matchups but Austin Ekeler is in line for a huge day in the receiving game if Jayon Brown is unable to suit up. Our model favors the Chargers by 0.8 points, with a predicted total of 42.8 points, but Tennessee applies to a 53-18-1 ATS team off a shutout loss situation that will keep me from leaning with the Chargers.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.8
27.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.7%
15.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.4%
41.3%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.2
27.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.2%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.0%
47.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.4%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.0
55.5
-
Early Down Succ
45.7%
49.4%
-
Succ Rate
45.8%
49.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.2%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
31.4
-
Run Ratio
33.6%
49.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
27.0
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
36.4%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
13.5%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.9%
13.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.1%
31.1%
-
NYPP
5.8
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.7
24.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
22.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
39.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.1%
48.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.7
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
44.4%
47.7%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
42.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.3%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
28.7
-
Run Ratio
44.5%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.2
24.0
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
IND |
30 – 24 W |
6.2 |
52.6% /
44.8% |
10.5% /
6.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.0 |
57.1% /
66.7% |
23.8% /
15.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
59 /
62 |
52.1% /
56.3% |
54.2% /
56.5% |
57.9% /
38.0% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
53.2% |
30.0 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
@DET |
10 – 13 L |
1.9 |
43.2% /
56.7% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
2.8% /
6.7% |
7.8 /
8.2 |
52.0% /
50.0% |
16.0% /
17.9% |
5.5 /
3.4 |
62 /
58 |
46.9% /
56.5% |
46.8% /
53.4% |
55.4% /
39.8% |
6.8 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
48.3% |
22.0 /
20.7 |
| 3 |
HOU |
20 – 27 L |
2.4 |
41.2% /
58.3% |
9.8% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
9.4 |
38.9% /
26.3% |
16.7% /
26.3% |
4.1 /
2.1 |
69 /
55 |
41.2% /
45.5% |
40.6% /
47.3% |
42.6% /
57.7% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
26.1% /
34.5% |
27.7 /
24.2 |
| 4 |
@MIA |
30 – 10 W |
6.4 |
71.9% /
48.3% |
3.1% /
17.2% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
9.7 /
5.6 |
39.4% /
55.6% |
21.2% /
22.2% |
2.4 /
4.0 |
65 /
47 |
57.1% /
52.8% |
55.4% /
51.1% |
23.1% /
34.3% |
6.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
38.3% |
31.8 /
25.0 |
| 5 |
DEN |
13 – 20 L |
-12.5 |
41.7% /
34.8% |
0.0% /
13.0% |
4.2% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
6.9 |
31.3% /
50.0% |
43.8% /
15.6% |
2.2 /
6.0 |
64 /
55 |
42.9% /
48.8% |
39.1% /
43.6% |
8.1% /
60.6% |
3.8 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
1.8% |
25.0% /
58.2% |
31.3 /
28.9 |
| 6 |
PIT |
17 – 24 L |
-16.2 |
44.4% /
55.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
5.0% |
7.0 /
6.6 |
21.4% /
36.1% |
35.7% /
27.8% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
59 /
56 |
34.0% /
36.6% |
39.0% /
42.9% |
24.1% /
27.0% |
5.9 /
4.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
23.7% /
64.3% |
20.0 /
37.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
43 – 13 W |
7.1 |
35.7% /
39.5% |
14.3% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.7 |
50.0% /
45.0% |
21.4% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
56 /
63 |
50.0% /
49.0% |
42.9% /
41.3% |
67.8% /
47.4% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
31.7% |
34.4 /
22.6 |
| 2 |
IND |
17 – 19 L |
-1.3 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
12.5% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
50.0% /
47.1% |
20.8% /
29.4% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
56 /
65 |
52.3% /
45.8% |
42.9% /
46.2% |
38.4% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.9% /
52.3% |
31.5 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 20 L |
-13.0 |
30.6% /
43.3% |
18.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
53.8% /
15.0% |
19.2% /
45.0% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
75 /
50 |
36.8% /
37.8% |
38.7% /
32.0% |
57.1% /
56.8% |
4.5 /
5.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
34.7% /
40.0% |
28.9 /
25.7 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
24 – 10 W |
10.8 |
44.4% /
48.3% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
6.3 |
44.1% /
41.2% |
32.4% /
23.5% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
61 /
75 |
44.7% /
50.9% |
44.3% /
46.7% |
50.1% /
39.1% |
6.0 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
55.7% /
22.7% |
32.6 /
15.7 |
| 5 |
BUF |
7 – 14 L |
-2.4 |
40.7% /
47.2% |
18.5% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.6 /
5.7 |
40.7% /
55.6% |
25.9% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
54 /
63 |
45.0% /
58.7% |
40.7% /
50.8% |
52.0% /
34.5% |
4.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
42.9% |
23.3 /
30.0 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
0 – 16 L |
-7.4 |
29.3% /
41.4% |
17.1% /
3.4% |
8.8% /
3.6% |
4.0 /
5.8 |
33.3% /
30.0% |
33.3% /
16.7% |
1.9 /
3.4 |
62 /
59 |
37.8% /
44.2% |
30.6% /
35.6% |
12.3% /
26.3% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
50.8% |
30.6 /
23.4 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Tennessee Titans