Los Angeles Chargers @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Los Angeles Chargers (+3 ½) over OAKLAND

Raiders starting quarterback, Derek Carr, will return this week after missing a game and a half. Carr averaged 6.0 yppp before his injury and replacement EJ Manuel averaged 5.0 yppp in relief. Although, it’s worth noting Manuel played against the Broncos and Ravens, two of the league’s strongest pass defenses. Oakland has been disappointing this season, but it’s mostly due to their defense, which also was below average last season.

The Raiders defense ranks 27^th in yards per play allowed this season while only playing one top 10 offense, Washington, and they allowed the Redskins to gain 11.5 yards per pass play in that week 3 matchup. The Chargers will be the second top 10 offense for the Oakland defense and I expect Phillip Rivers to play well against this Raiders secondary. Furthermore, Oakland’s defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to a 29% Redzone touchdown rate (2^ndin NFL) and I certainly don’t expect a defense of this low quality to maintain that moving forward.

The Los Angeles defense ranks in the top half of the league against the pass but just 30^th against the run in my numbers – the Chargers are surrendering 161 rushing yards per game, 15 more than the next worst team. However, the Chargers rush defense ranked 7^th last year and I expect them to improve moving forward.

The Chargers are 1-4 but have been unlucky to lose three games decided by a field goal or less, so they’re certainly much better than their record. Los Angeles has outgained Oakland by 0.9 net yards per play this season despite facing a tougher schedule. I’ll lean with the Chargers plus the points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Raiders

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 33.4
Succ Pass Plays 44.8% 42.0%
Sack Rate 3.0% 10.5%
Int Rate 2.6% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 14.1% 17.9%
Big Pass Yards 32.4% 43.7%
NYPP 6.7 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 21.4 32.8
RB YPR 3.7 5.2
Stuff Rate 36.9% 20.3%
Succ Rush Plays 32.0% 50.5%
Big Rush Yards 69.0% 50.9%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 5.2

Game

All Snaps 61.4 66.2
Early Down Succ 41.9% 47.8%
Succ Rate 40.8% 45.3%
Big Yards Rate 40.0% 48.8%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 30.2
Run Ratio 34.0% 49.2%
Starting Field Pos 26.1 27.8
Game Control -4.2 4.2

Points 19.8 23.0

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DEN	21 – 24 L	-6.6	47.1% / 50.0%	2.9% / 12.5%	3.0% / 3.6%	5.4 / 5.7	27.3% / 40.5%	31.8% / 18.9%	2.9 / 3.8	56 / 69	42.9% / 44.2%	39.3% / 44.9%	27.7% / 47.8%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.4%	39.3% / 53.6%	31.6 / 31.8
2	MIA	17 – 19 L	2.0	62.5% / 44.4%	2.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.3	28.6% / 36.4%	50.0% / 30.3%	3.1 / 3.4	54 / 69	58.7% / 43.4%	53.7% / 40.6%	28.6% / 38.9%	6.8 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	25.9% / 47.8%	24.9 / 26.4
3	KC	10 – 24 L	-8.0	35.7% / 34.6%	4.8% / 19.2%	7.5% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.7	34.6% / 56.0%	34.6% / 20.0%	4.0 / 7.6	68 / 51	34.5% / 50.0%	35.3% / 45.1%	39.1% / 55.0%	4.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	38.2% / 49.0%	22.8 / 30.5
4	PHI	24 – 26 L	-6.2	42.5% / 46.9%	5.0% / 3.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 7.5	38.5% / 47.7%	46.2% / 20.5%	4.5 / 4.9	53 / 76	39.5% / 47.3%	41.5% / 47.4%	68.3% / 56.1%	7.5 / 6.0	1.9% / 0.0%	24.5% / 57.9%	22.2 / 22.1
5	@NYG	27 – 22 W	-2.4	36.4% / 34.1%	0.0% / 12.2%	2.3% / 2.8%	5.9 / 4.5	31.3% / 72.0%	21.9% / 12.0%	3.9 / 6.1	76 / 66	34.0% / 54.0%	34.2% / 48.5%	36.2% / 46.3%	5.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	42.1% / 37.9%	29.0 / 28.2

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@TEN	26 – 16 W	4.4	55.9% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.1	50.0% / 42.9%	16.7% / 28.6%	3.7 / 4.5	64 / 63	57.1% / 46.9%	53.1% / 47.6%	26.7% / 33.1%	5.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	46.9% / 33.3%	29.3 / 22.4
2	NYJ	45 – 20 W	11.6	64.3% / 44.8%	0.0% / 13.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.0	40.7% / 61.5%	33.3% / 19.2%	6.7 / 4.9	55 / 55	48.8% / 53.7%	52.7% / 52.7%	56.1% / 43.0%	7.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 3.6%	49.1% / 47.3%	35.7 / 27.1
3	@WAS	10 – 27 L	-11.9	37.1% / 61.3%	11.4% / 3.2%	6.5% / 0.0%	2.7 / 11.5	21.4% / 35.3%	21.4% / 17.6%	2.4 / 3.4	49 / 65	42.4% / 48.0%	32.7% / 47.7%	24.8% / 53.2%	2.6 / 7.3	2.0% / 3.1%	28.6% / 52.3%	31.7 / 28.7
4	@DEN	10 – 16 L	-6.7	36.8% / 33.3%	7.9% / 13.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.1 / 5.2	33.3% / 31.4%	46.7% / 22.9%	1.6 / 4.2	53 / 65	44.7% / 36.4%	35.8% / 32.3%	52.8% / 39.5%	4.8 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	28.3% / 53.8%	24.7 / 28.8
5	BAL	17 – 30 L	-11.8	34.5% / 42.3%	10.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 8.5	56.0% / 44.2%	24.0% / 9.3%	4.3 / 3.4	54 / 69	43.9% / 46.9%	44.4% / 43.5%	40.0% / 46.5%	4.5 / 5.3	1.9% / 0.0%	46.3% / 62.3%	24.9 / 34.0

Los Angeles Chargers @

Oakland Raiders

Sun, Oct 15

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis